{ "ticker": { "uuid": "776c7422-b174-4725-a59b-1dd272394f22", "symbol": "TSEP", "name": "FT Vest Emerging Market Buffer ETF - September", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.811, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.989, "architecture_energy": 54.613, "architecture_maturity": 54.449, "architecture_confidence": 69.65, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.23, "rotation_up": 55.65, "upward_expansion": 80.92, "deceleration": 65.62, "rotation_down": 25.43, "downward_expansion": 7.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.055, 25.962635, 25.817509, 25.548441 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.385, "trend_reference": 25.247447, "distance_from_trend": 0.045056, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.592199, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.167881, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.636305, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.058138, "excess_performance": -0.067486, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045056, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031223, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.167881, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005492, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036363, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023453, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058138, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.039355, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2723, "relative_activity": 0.209742, "balance": 2.039355, "dry_up": 0.899666, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013809, "annualized_volatility": 0.10836, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.181928 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.247447, "fair_value_reference": 22.592199, "structural_low": 23.5127, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.00058, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.014601, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.012133, "worst_return": -0.000966, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.017613, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.021636, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.017613, "worst_return": 0.017613, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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13457, "typical_volume": 19273.65, "trend": 25.04848, "fair_value": 22.482111, "relative_strength": -2.607338, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.69683, "energy": 46.506818, "activity_lines": [ 25.830927, 25.813104, 25.602297, 25.362 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.85, "volume": 20396, "typical_volume": 16625.25, "trend": 25.117397, "fair_value": 22.517193, "relative_strength": -1.321626, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.523464, "energy": 39.298776, "activity_lines": [ 25.820507, 25.826289, 25.660728, 25.413711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.0, "volume": 10144, "typical_volume": 14840.55, "trend": 25.17928, "fair_value": 22.553098, "relative_strength": -1.78047, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.74156, "energy": 44.787648, "activity_lines": [ 25.877753, 25.862371, 25.725397, 25.470653 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.385, "volume": 2723, "typical_volume": 12982.6, "trend": 25.247447, "fair_value": 22.592199, "relative_strength": -3.636305, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.988564, "energy": 54.612739, "activity_lines": [ 26.055, 25.962635, 25.817509, 25.548441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }