{ "ticker": { "uuid": "776fc2cb-1901-4e04-90ac-8f4757116050", "symbol": "WLFC", "name": "Willis Lease Finance Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 60.718, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.359, "architecture_energy": 13.132, "architecture_maturity": 54.755, "architecture_confidence": 81.516, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.88, "rotation_up": 25.49, "upward_expansion": 57.71, "deceleration": 84.94, "rotation_down": 35.5, "downward_expansion": 21.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.609444, 68.448273, 67.099821, 65.901751 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 61.05, "trend_reference": 64.66855, "distance_from_trend": -0.055955, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.634955, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.431924, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.944081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.081562, "excess_performance": -0.269016, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055955, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144592, "read": "Rising" 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53.251527, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.049085, "positive_rate": 0.653846, "directional_follow_through": 0.653846, "median_excess_return": 0.011436, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.536104, "worst_return": -0.172696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.085618, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.070605, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 1.018089, "worst_return": -0.210378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.317205, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.18322, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.36145, "worst_return": -0.382075, 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"direction": 63.089245, "energy": 67.779076, "activity_lines": [ 73.019333, 68.997902, 66.532128, 65.077699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 63.883333, "volume": 546100, "typical_volume": 539325.2, "trend": 62.676981, "fair_value": 41.619194, "relative_strength": 4.282801, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.237632, "energy": 51.13036, "activity_lines": [ 70.578333, 68.406364, 66.469782, 65.196936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.045, "volume": 858986, "typical_volume": 569584.0, "trend": 63.465122, "fair_value": 41.976469, "relative_strength": 14.117725, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.350548, "energy": 30.55399, "activity_lines": [ 69.827, 68.939121, 66.91757, 65.607776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.33, "volume": 1198861, "typical_volume": 609731.8, "trend": 64.358264, "fair_value": 42.338754, "relative_strength": 16.670769, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.546969, "energy": 26.402784, "activity_lines": [ 69.821667, 69.723061, 67.537176, 66.115187 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.05, "volume": 1118735, "typical_volume": 651147.15, "trend": 64.66855, "fair_value": 42.634955, "relative_strength": -4.944081, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.358784, "energy": 13.132049, "activity_lines": [ 66.609444, 68.448273, 67.099821, 65.901751 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }