{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7772b320-75e3-40e8-8a8f-8c4086ded9a6", "symbol": "KSM-F228", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (Stock Market)", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.883, "architecture_energy": 64.323, "architecture_maturity": 97.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.521, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.7, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 55.82, "downward_expansion": 74.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.898667, 31.830364, 673.081762, 1235.762731 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.49, "trend_reference": 1888.161667, "distance_from_trend": -0.982793, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2443.012759, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.986701, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.728073, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988896, "excess_performance": -1.017796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.982793, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.327938, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.986701, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.151175, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987281, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.821325, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988896, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.713957, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16966, "relative_activity": 3.249071, "balance": 0.713957, "dry_up": 1.541853, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.339915, "annualized_volatility": 6.349174, "from_high_reference": -0.989523, "from_low_reference": 0.047389 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1888.161667, "fair_value_reference": 2443.012759, "structural_low": 31.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.010544, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.024429, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.072621, "worst_return": 0.007297, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.120618, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.076663, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.120618, "worst_return": 0.120618, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.146077, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.178767, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146077, "worst_return": 0.146077, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 31.646667, 31.675091, 812.622524, 1361.667376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.49, "volume": 16966, "typical_volume": 5221.8, "trend": 1888.161667, "fair_value": 2443.012759, "relative_strength": -98.728073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.883103, "energy": 64.323036, "activity_lines": [ 31.898667, 31.830364, 673.081762, 1235.762731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }