{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7776add7-c809-4f36-bc3d-dd41461ec8c9", "symbol": "300149", "name": "ChemPartner PharmaTech Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.299, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.057, "architecture_energy": 10.479, "architecture_maturity": 70.604, "architecture_confidence": 55.542, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.11, "rotation_up": 36.03, "upward_expansion": 21.04, "deceleration": 41.02, "rotation_down": 18.24, "downward_expansion": 52.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.454667, 9.142727, 9.161333, 9.473312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.42, "trend_reference": 9.911667, "distance_from_trend": 0.051286, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.057115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.293267, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.259415, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.001916, "excess_performance": -0.009315, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051286, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04848, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.293267, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035949, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052594, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198829, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001916, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.191564, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 242622907, "relative_activity": 1.939313, "balance": 1.191564, "dry_up": 2.097028, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126015, "annualized_volatility": 0.517389, "from_high_reference": -0.272854, "from_low_reference": 0.396783 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.911667, "fair_value_reference": 8.057115, "structural_low": 7.46, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.024608, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.016773, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.377391, "worst_return": -0.254346, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.011553, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.03745, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.186304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.017562, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.028401, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.965217, "worst_return": -0.36185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.050952, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004288, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.737391, "worst_return": -0.444109, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.299373, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.324619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095101, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.135908, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128763, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025997, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104348, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.296717, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.175077, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 81854879.0, "trend": 9.954667, "fair_value": 8.017756, "relative_strength": -25.526753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.883434, "energy": 31.584247, "activity_lines": [ 8.764667, 8.642364, 9.236571, 9.60972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.66, "volume": 335170446, "typical_volume": 96680752.2, "trend": 9.949333, "fair_value": 8.029615, "relative_strength": -11.09307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.898359, "energy": 22.282711, "activity_lines": [ 9.152, 8.802, 9.233048, 9.59071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.55, "volume": 297669698, "typical_volume": 108632014.05, "trend": 9.907333, "fair_value": 8.03359, "relative_strength": -20.92196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.463654, "energy": 23.05886, "activity_lines": [ 9.050667, 8.766909, 9.129286, 9.50043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.95, "volume": 173953786, "typical_volume": 114944955.0, "trend": 9.883, "fair_value": 8.040321, "relative_strength": -15.259673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.405194, "energy": 16.746166, "activity_lines": [ 9.022667, 8.820727, 9.072476, 9.438667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.42, "volume": 242622907, "typical_volume": 125107644.45, "trend": 9.911667, "fair_value": 8.057115, "relative_strength": -5.259415, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.057063, "energy": 10.478792, "activity_lines": [ 9.454667, 9.142727, 9.161333, 9.473312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }