{ "ticker": { "uuid": "777ab3e2-edd5-45c7-92ee-3548678755bb", "symbol": "600685", "name": "CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering (Group) Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.057, "architecture_energy": 42.191, "architecture_maturity": 38.86, "architecture_confidence": 90.594, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.79, "rotation_up": 22.52, "upward_expansion": 5.58, "deceleration": 54.79, "rotation_down": 49.51, "downward_expansion": 76.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.133946, 26.185586, 27.245187, 28.367207 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.120001, "trend_reference": 29.820974, "distance_from_trend": -0.124106, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.340223, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.008361, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.339844, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.169211, "excess_performance": -0.126007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124106, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022979, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.008361, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207393, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093398, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104715, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.169211, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.604389, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51710956, "relative_activity": 0.819118, "balance": 0.604389, "dry_up": 1.061818, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083547, "annualized_volatility": 0.459226, "from_high_reference": -0.322438, "from_low_reference": 0.074406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.820974, "fair_value_reference": 26.340223, "structural_low": 24.311118, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.011828, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.014666, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.137566, "worst_return": -0.133198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.023104, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.016403, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.376576, "worst_return": -0.186579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.061545, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.078722, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119737, "worst_return": -0.071836, "sufficient": 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050451, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007149, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051057, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026392, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074058, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": 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"direction": -76.222055, "energy": 53.008657, "activity_lines": [ 26.154585, 26.538451, 27.961604, 29.096901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.74, "volume": 63708072, "typical_volume": 64777967.4, "trend": 29.95864, "fair_value": 26.35149, "relative_strength": -8.116639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.196026, "energy": 43.304904, "activity_lines": [ 26.014167, 26.259375, 27.635703, 28.821225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.700001, "volume": 63718233, "typical_volume": 63858629.35, "trend": 29.89864, "fair_value": 26.345391, "relative_strength": -4.973635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.715287, "energy": 35.718164, "activity_lines": [ 26.246374, 26.245207, 27.451755, 28.610991 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.120001, "volume": 51710956, "typical_volume": 63130026.6, "trend": 29.820974, "fair_value": 26.340223, "relative_strength": -9.339844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.057292, "energy": 42.190935, "activity_lines": [ 26.133946, 26.185586, 27.245187, 28.367207 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }