{ "ticker": { "uuid": "777dc46f-727d-450a-98f4-f93f2ed80acf", "symbol": "EGY", "name": "Energy Technologies Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.549, "architecture_energy": 44.165, "architecture_maturity": 43.26, "architecture_confidence": 66.532, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.14, "rotation_up": 23.6, "upward_expansion": 14.37, "deceleration": 66.86, "rotation_down": 62.33, "downward_expansion": 56.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.020133, 0.020382, 0.021905, 0.022022 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.02, "trend_reference": 0.0219, "distance_from_trend": -0.086758, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.031455, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.364174, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.302739, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.063706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086758, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00905, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.364174, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110157, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163027, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169937, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.698649, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 230000, "relative_activity": 1.198262, "balance": 0.698649, "dry_up": 1.080713, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061538, "annualized_volatility": 0.588477, "from_high_reference": -0.333333, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0219, "fair_value_reference": 0.031455, "structural_low": 0.015, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.05, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.04183, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.045455, "worst_return": -0.146341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.186047, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.16511, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.066667, "worst_return": -0.189478, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.231314, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.186047, "worst_return": -0.285267, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.35, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.347463, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.27907, "worst_return": -0.521055, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022727, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046512, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.146341, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.114286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.233333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.291667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.05, "volume": 28, "typical_volume": 230702.65, "trend": 0.053267, "fair_value": 0.086669, "relative_strength": -11.297356, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.4208, "energy": 22.548527, "activity_lines": [ 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"typical_volume": 180715.4, "trend": 0.021967, "fair_value": 0.031891, "relative_strength": -13.221446, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.944746, "energy": 48.166993, "activity_lines": [ 0.020267, 0.021, 0.022424, 0.022273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.02, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 180454.65, "trend": 0.021933, "fair_value": 0.031673, "relative_strength": -14.424482, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.189403, "energy": 45.167421, "activity_lines": [ 0.0202, 0.020636, 0.022171, 0.022146 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.02, "volume": 230000, "typical_volume": 191944.65, "trend": 0.0219, "fair_value": 0.031455, "relative_strength": -16.302739, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.549498, "energy": 44.164974, "activity_lines": [ 0.020133, 0.020382, 0.021905, 0.022022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }