{ "ticker": { "uuid": "777e107f-8189-4959-ae2e-335e3da9d5b6", "symbol": "MXUD", "name": "Invesco MSCI USA UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.813, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.752, "architecture_energy": 68.169, "architecture_maturity": 82.834, "architecture_confidence": 65.234, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.31, "rotation_up": 54.05, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.39, "rotation_down": 29.1, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 88.282, 87.925138, 86.6332, 84.672459 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 90.110001, "trend_reference": 82.335062, "distance_from_trend": 0.09443, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 70.070909, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.285983, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.658919, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.166308, "excess_performance": -0.004583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09443, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039264, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.285983, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037298, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036589, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003961, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.166308, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.259753, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21433, "relative_activity": 4.960539, "balance": 6.259753, "dry_up": 1.705106, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017623, "annualized_volatility": 0.123814, "from_high_reference": -0.008477, "from_low_reference": 0.238027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 82.335062, "fair_value_reference": 70.070909, "structural_low": 74.610001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.01634, "positive_rate": 0.78125, "directional_follow_through": 0.78125, "median_excess_return": -0.012912, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.088717, "worst_return": -0.108061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.039849, "positive_rate": 0.909091, "directional_follow_through": 0.909091, "median_excess_return": 0.017542, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.13528, "worst_return": -0.170888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.062076, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.020457, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.196044, "worst_return": -0.116522, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 2981.5, "trend": 81.356503, "fair_value": 69.397572, "relative_strength": -3.223261, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.91132, "energy": 65.534222, "activity_lines": [ 87.833332, 87.398675, 85.275486, 83.418582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 87.769997, "volume": 2201, "typical_volume": 3074.05, "trend": 81.688193, "fair_value": 69.618943, "relative_strength": -2.925178, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.762192, "energy": 65.269428, "activity_lines": [ 87.867998, 87.532982, 85.734666, 83.832356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 86.580002, "volume": 4052, "typical_volume": 3252.35, "trend": 81.980216, "fair_value": 69.833612, "relative_strength": -4.768426, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.286201, "energy": 60.20384, "activity_lines": [ 87.488666, 87.407606, 86.034933, 84.147956 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 90.110001, "volume": 21433, "typical_volume": 4320.7, "trend": 82.335062, "fair_value": 70.070909, "relative_strength": -3.658919, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.751992, "energy": 68.169315, "activity_lines": [ 88.282, 87.925138, 86.6332, 84.672459 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }