{ "ticker": { "uuid": "778143c6-84fe-4804-a1fb-5d5ce621a864", "symbol": "IBC3", "name": "iShares Core MSCI EM IMI UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.198, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.343, "architecture_energy": 23.355, "architecture_maturity": 65.127, "architecture_confidence": 86.891, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.35, "rotation_up": 17.77, "upward_expansion": 52.15, "deceleration": 93.98, "rotation_down": 38.45, "downward_expansion": 20.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.19644, 6.293927, 6.27953, 6.140414 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.2664, "trend_reference": 5.959018, "distance_from_trend": 0.051583, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.642905, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.349672, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.291469, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.123351, "excess_performance": 0.058711, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051583, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072249, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.349672, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079195, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.042915, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182186, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123351, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.838748, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1421683, "relative_activity": 1.828478, "balance": 0.838748, "dry_up": 1.755032, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042439, "annualized_volatility": 0.220259, "from_high_reference": -0.069549, "from_low_reference": 0.344905 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.959018, "fair_value_reference": 4.642905, "structural_low": 5.186, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.045502, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.002781, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.127667, "worst_return": -0.021669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.050457, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.034658, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.223955, "worst_return": -0.002037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.04366, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.013293, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.31712, "worst_return": -0.011258, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02459, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06285, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090225, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041764, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089068, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034813, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.669237, "energy": 34.525573, "activity_lines": [ 6.36348, 6.400622, 6.247737, 6.085118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.1814, "volume": 1263360, "typical_volume": 686680.65, "trend": 5.902289, "fair_value": 4.612097, "relative_strength": 8.686434, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.506558, "energy": 22.78451, "activity_lines": [ 6.27508, 6.363404, 6.261153, 6.105476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.1078, "volume": 1658888, "typical_volume": 744379.35, "trend": 5.930376, "fair_value": 4.626701, "relative_strength": 4.791883, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.026205, "energy": 23.033155, "activity_lines": [ 6.196827, 6.312767, 6.264272, 6.118735 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.2664, "volume": 1421683, "typical_volume": 777522.5, "trend": 5.959018, "fair_value": 4.642905, "relative_strength": 4.291469, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.342785, "energy": 23.355417, "activity_lines": [ 6.19644, 6.293927, 6.27953, 6.140414 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }