{ "ticker": { "uuid": "778214aa-4fc1-4c86-8a3f-234528893941", "symbol": "RMM", "name": "RiverNorth Managed Duration Municipal Income Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.34, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.044, "architecture_energy": 23.857, "architecture_maturity": 43.123, "architecture_confidence": 74.374, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.59, "rotation_up": 34.33, "upward_expansion": 64.15, "deceleration": 84.9, "rotation_down": 26.05, "downward_expansion": 14.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.54567, 14.583435, 14.467573, 14.32958 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.69, "trend_reference": 14.156695, "distance_from_trend": 0.037672, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.123733, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.119346, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.854526, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.054736, "excess_performance": -0.070889, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037672, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02953, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.119346, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017121, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048545, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000428, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054736, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.239901, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 239104, "relative_activity": 1.090637, "balance": 1.239901, "dry_up": 0.964466, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025825, "annualized_volatility": 0.147123, "from_high_reference": -0.019287, "from_low_reference": 0.169411 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.156695, "fair_value_reference": 13.123733, "structural_low": 13.117541, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 7.5e-05, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.009852, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.045271, "worst_return": -0.06852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0357, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.020129, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.058508, "worst_return": -0.017812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.027076, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.020758, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.113781, "worst_return": -0.096641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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14.208581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.71, "volume": 207181, "typical_volume": 216832.4, "trend": 14.037821, "fair_value": 13.084487, "relative_strength": -1.300599, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.626472, "energy": 65.327828, "activity_lines": [ 14.737869, 14.61868, 14.399946, 14.255097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.37, "volume": 191766, "typical_volume": 217718.75, "trend": 14.080771, "fair_value": 13.095989, "relative_strength": -2.920391, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.877495, "energy": 42.678563, "activity_lines": [ 14.631551, 14.59208, 14.415489, 14.276528 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.33, "volume": 207721, "typical_volume": 216829.1, "trend": 14.116916, "fair_value": 13.108164, "relative_strength": -4.068013, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.293904, "energy": 26.144888, "activity_lines": [ 14.521046, 14.557052, 14.424991, 14.292607 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.69, "volume": 239104, "typical_volume": 219233.25, "trend": 14.156695, "fair_value": 13.123733, "relative_strength": -4.854526, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.04442, "energy": 23.857102, "activity_lines": [ 14.54567, 14.583435, 14.467573, 14.32958 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }