{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7784608f-dedb-40a6-a1f8-65d0b3830a0a", "symbol": "TRCS", "name": "Tracsis plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 70.029, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.419, "architecture_energy": 9.055, "architecture_maturity": 26.883, "architecture_confidence": 38.225, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.24, "rotation_up": 35.57, "upward_expansion": 58.94, "deceleration": 63.54, "rotation_down": 18.23, "downward_expansion": 13.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 332.466667, 330.809091, 334.103135, 331.505698 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 310.0, "trend_reference": 327.959238, "distance_from_trend": -0.054761, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 547.990728, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.434297, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.145475, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.031215, "excess_performance": -0.08245, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.054761, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015245, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.434297, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031885, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161455, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075823, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031215, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.395608, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 398966, "relative_activity": 1.116814, "balance": 0.395608, "dry_up": 0.8795, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075117, "annualized_volatility": 0.423394, "from_high_reference": -0.287303, "from_low_reference": 0.107226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 327.959238, "fair_value_reference": 547.990728, "structural_low": 279.989746, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.080283, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.068781, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.1648, "worst_return": 0.010811, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.075532, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.008791, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0862, "worst_return": 0.064865, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.105762, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.185529, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.091892, "worst_return": -0.303415, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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324.333333, 328.909091, 331.330205, 329.101813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 364.0, "volume": 262191, "typical_volume": 391831.0, "trend": 326.624373, "fair_value": 554.005136, "relative_strength": -1.246721, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.766196, "energy": 28.046584, "activity_lines": [ 337.833333, 334.090909, 334.842665, 331.623947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 342.5, "volume": 393614, "typical_volume": 370242.5, "trend": 327.708482, "fair_value": 550.970709, "relative_strength": -7.75624, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.266187, "energy": 25.886494, "activity_lines": [ 341.566667, 335.290909, 336.121736, 332.648181 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 310.0, "volume": 398966, "typical_volume": 357235.8, "trend": 327.959238, "fair_value": 547.990728, "relative_strength": -16.145475, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.41921, "energy": 9.054776, "activity_lines": [ 332.466667, 330.809091, 334.103135, 331.505698 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }