{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7785e902-e095-4e6d-865d-bfde9d6b764b", "symbol": "R1GB", "name": "iShares Russell 1000 Growth UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.272, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.081, "architecture_energy": 19.884, "architecture_maturity": 65.011, "architecture_confidence": 82.924, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.94, "rotation_up": 23.4, "upward_expansion": 47.65, "deceleration": 84.92, "rotation_down": 39.12, "downward_expansion": 30.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.484333, 33.684863, 33.857345, 33.34457 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.509998, "trend_reference": 32.75125, "distance_from_trend": 0.0537, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.130183, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145363, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.620429, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.108043, "excess_performance": 0.056808, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0537, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008579, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145363, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003088, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026204, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046743, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108043, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.814088, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74817, "relative_activity": 0.737296, "balance": 1.814088, "dry_up": 1.030455, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035048, "annualized_volatility": 0.194097, "from_high_reference": -0.033187, "from_low_reference": 0.18347 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.75125, "fair_value_reference": 30.130183, "structural_low": 29.16, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.050886, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.068594, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.050886, "worst_return": -0.050886, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053271, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008861, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095344, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04504, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": 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"fair_value": 30.038703, "relative_strength": -4.408037, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.37984, "energy": 23.676264, "activity_lines": [ 33.836667, 34.161636, 33.79081, 33.218194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.169998, "volume": 131538, "typical_volume": 94528.65, "trend": 32.712667, "fair_value": 30.067967, "relative_strength": -5.301612, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.040721, "energy": 20.18939, "activity_lines": [ 33.554333, 33.928545, 33.801667, 33.247737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.407501, "volume": 152138, "typical_volume": 100395.85, "trend": 32.703917, "fair_value": 30.08963, "relative_strength": -8.398287, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.218146, "energy": 18.804111, "activity_lines": [ 33.126833, 33.592364, 33.732679, 33.228048 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.509998, "volume": 74817, "typical_volume": 101474.8, "trend": 32.75125, "fair_value": 30.130183, "relative_strength": -2.620429, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.080886, "energy": 19.884105, "activity_lines": [ 33.484333, 33.684863, 33.857345, 33.34457 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }