{ "ticker": { "uuid": "778aa345-643b-4f66-9794-c491d5f9d687", "symbol": "300796", "name": "BSM Chemical Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.772, "architecture_energy": 62.823, "architecture_maturity": 74.933, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 28.52, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.59, "rotation_down": 53.81, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.384667, 6.452305, 7.022007, 7.586944 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.59, "trend_reference": 8.259059, "distance_from_trend": -0.202088, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.221574, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.412738, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.199387, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.314969, "excess_performance": -0.322369, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.202088, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092492, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.412738, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173202, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.291994, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016034, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.314969, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.468085, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23282146, "relative_activity": 1.052974, "balance": 0.468085, "dry_up": 1.039705, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075061, "annualized_volatility": 0.359386, "from_high_reference": -0.478226, "from_low_reference": 0.103853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.259059, "fair_value_reference": 11.221574, "structural_low": 5.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.007884, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.018514, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.163848, "worst_return": -0.271633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.033453, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.020112, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.297491, "worst_return": -0.28012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011617, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.062441, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.358423, "worst_return": -0.222724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"down", "direction": -79.389738, "energy": 82.278616, "activity_lines": [ 6.257333, 6.533014, 7.267643, 7.824414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.46, "volume": 20793044, "typical_volume": 22907094.75, "trend": 8.329059, "fair_value": 11.251186, "relative_strength": -27.94341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.393852, "energy": 69.014922, "activity_lines": [ 6.302, 6.467869, 7.130206, 7.699142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.59, "volume": 23282146, "typical_volume": 22110846.5, "trend": 8.259059, "fair_value": 11.221574, "relative_strength": -29.199387, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.772432, "energy": 62.822583, "activity_lines": [ 6.384667, 6.452305, 7.022007, 7.586944 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }