{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77922243-f1a6-4129-8ab4-691122c16688", "symbol": "HSXD", "name": "HSBC Asia Pacific Ex Japan Screened Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.881, "architecture_energy": 23.85, "architecture_maturity": 67.533, "architecture_confidence": 93.827, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.55, "rotation_up": 22.01, "upward_expansion": 55.58, "deceleration": 91.14, "rotation_down": 35.55, "downward_expansion": 21.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.178666, 29.562727, 29.405167, 28.515882 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 29.59, "trend_reference": 27.356, "distance_from_trend": 0.081664, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.414308, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.524134, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.721344, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.18621, "excess_performance": 0.103326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081664, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098789, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.524134, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067336, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.067213, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176249, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.18621, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.574184, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25495, "relative_activity": 1.070267, "balance": 3.574184, "dry_up": 2.178022, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045416, "annualized_volatility": 0.283643, "from_high_reference": -0.070374, "from_low_reference": 0.452626 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.356, "fair_value_reference": 19.414308, "structural_low": 23.200001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.006069, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.003799, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.149225, "worst_return": -0.093397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.061767, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.072077, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.281893, "worst_return": -0.016457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.121034, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.119227, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.343493, "worst_return": -0.030922, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016785, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006899, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.149913, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005201, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.164094, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009566, 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29.571333, 29.988, 29.060048, 28.068731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.004999, "volume": 80979, "typical_volume": 20064.3, "trend": 26.948, "fair_value": 19.228327, "relative_strength": 6.924847, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.163206, "energy": 25.850826, "activity_lines": [ 29.208333, 29.806363, 29.173476, 28.215108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.174999, "volume": 63319, "typical_volume": 22842.95, "trend": 27.155, "fair_value": 19.318705, "relative_strength": 7.042099, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.345383, "energy": 24.566737, "activity_lines": [ 29.090333, 29.648636, 29.281714, 28.358785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.59, "volume": 25495, "typical_volume": 23821.15, "trend": 27.356, "fair_value": 19.414308, "relative_strength": 6.721344, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.881173, "energy": 23.849802, "activity_lines": [ 29.178666, 29.562727, 29.405167, 28.515882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }