{ "ticker": { "uuid": "779620e9-b6c4-4ffc-b192-f9f131d0b592", "symbol": "5G9", "name": "Tritech Group Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.445, "architecture_energy": 57.258, "architecture_maturity": 17.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.41, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.95, "rotation_up": 13.72, "upward_expansion": 11.13, "deceleration": 40.42, "rotation_down": 63.92, "downward_expansion": 84.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.007667, 0.007782, 0.008143, 0.008314 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.008, "trend_reference": 0.008533, "distance_from_trend": -0.0625, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.010173, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.213611, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.120071, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.111111, "excess_performance": -0.265946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0625, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041199, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.213611, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016355, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251201, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149168, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.770621, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.770621, "dry_up": 0.564052, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086538, "annualized_volatility": 0.818612, "from_high_reference": -0.384615, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.008533, "fair_value_reference": 0.010173, "structural_low": 0.006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.258065, "directional_follow_through": 0.451613, "median_excess_return": -0.033471, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.07894, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 1.375, "worst_return": -0.294118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023077, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029427, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2024-11-15", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -57.411242, "energy": 44.408031, "activity_lines": [ 0.008133, 0.008309, 0.008514, 0.008611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.007, "volume": 5640000, "typical_volume": 6579205.0, "trend": 0.008667, "fair_value": 0.010404, "relative_strength": -33.965287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.720961, "energy": 72.591245, "activity_lines": [ 0.007733, 0.008036, 0.008357, 0.008499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.007, "volume": 2701200, "typical_volume": 5362765.0, "trend": 0.0086, "fair_value": 0.010321, "relative_strength": -34.17785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.400763, "energy": 75.702315, "activity_lines": [ 0.0074, 0.0078, 0.008219, 0.008391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.008, "volume": 3286300, "typical_volume": 5474510.0, "trend": 0.0086, "fair_value": 0.010244, "relative_strength": -24.744611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.642048, "energy": 60.501796, "activity_lines": [ 0.007533, 0.007782, 0.008181, 0.008353 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.008, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5153560.0, "trend": 0.008533, "fair_value": 0.010173, "relative_strength": -25.120071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.445106, "energy": 57.257937, "activity_lines": [ 0.007667, 0.007782, 0.008143, 0.008314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }