{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77a1c2de-39c6-4eef-8fca-488f2658ed61", "symbol": "1108", "name": "Lucky Cement Co.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.927, "architecture_energy": 90.496, "architecture_maturity": 42.596, "architecture_confidence": 83.619, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 11.03, "upward_expansion": 21.24, "deceleration": 37.37, "rotation_down": 83.31, "downward_expansion": 99.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.986667, 12.227697, 12.532339, 12.833788 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 11.8, "trend_reference": 13.220487, "distance_from_trend": -0.107446, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.150166, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.102673, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.79533, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.157011, "excess_performance": -0.598383, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107446, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035518, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.102673, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076506, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.387953, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015095, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.157011, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.647249, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2402446, "relative_activity": 1.399571, "balance": 0.647249, "dry_up": 0.965724, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0284, "annualized_volatility": 0.112039, "from_high_reference": -0.18403, "from_low_reference": 0.012876 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.220487, "fair_value_reference": 13.150166, "structural_low": 11.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.013049, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.109091, "worst_return": -0.068729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.01249, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.010674, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.121951, "worst_return": -0.099196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.083089, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.034204, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.634147, "worst_return": -0.044643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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13.465231, "fair_value": 13.191157, "relative_strength": -35.161966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.53545, "energy": 63.54756, "activity_lines": [ 12.58708, 12.670431, 12.943853, 13.188996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.15, "volume": 1197348, "typical_volume": 1703426.9, "trend": 13.408273, "fair_value": 13.18571, "relative_strength": -36.35917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.697685, "energy": 70.996389, "activity_lines": [ 12.412117, 12.569343, 12.841526, 13.104142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.95, "volume": 1928792, "typical_volume": 1733365.75, "trend": 13.344647, "fair_value": 13.178729, "relative_strength": -35.827809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.923266, "energy": 89.055625, "activity_lines": [ 12.219513, 12.444419, 12.72895, 13.01006 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.1, "volume": 1102304, "typical_volume": 1631808.85, "trend": 13.287567, "fair_value": 13.168934, "relative_strength": -35.841288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.07965, "energy": 84.47324, "activity_lines": [ 12.12691, 12.357877, 12.640853, 12.92976 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.8, "volume": 2402446, "typical_volume": 1716558.55, "trend": 13.220487, "fair_value": 13.150166, "relative_strength": -38.79533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.927203, "energy": 90.495586, "activity_lines": [ 11.986667, 12.227697, 12.532339, 12.833788 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }