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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.766, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.071, "architecture_energy": 32.674, "architecture_maturity": 11.362, "architecture_confidence": 62.204, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.46, "rotation_up": 52.12, "upward_expansion": 73.66, "deceleration": 60.1, "rotation_down": 16.2, "downward_expansion": 2.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 298.742667, 296.178037, 292.900552, 290.825519 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 303.44, "trend_reference": 286.453152, "distance_from_trend": 0.059301, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 270.237849, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.122863, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.024715, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.078474, "excess_performance": -0.047151, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059301, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049878, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.122863, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028564, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020247, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024586, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.078474, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.445029, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5013710, "relative_activity": 0.84238, "balance": 0.445029, "dry_up": 0.933145, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053558, "annualized_volatility": 0.247229, "from_high_reference": -0.036301, "from_low_reference": 0.342236 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 286.453152, "fair_value_reference": 270.237849, "structural_low": 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5286041, "typical_volume": 6133052.75, "trend": 283.541965, "fair_value": 269.82317, "relative_strength": 0.111369, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.123669, "energy": 40.089294, "activity_lines": [ 298.330576, 292.514579, 291.345077, 288.908518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 294.89, "volume": 6904831, "typical_volume": 6073598.9, "trend": 285.07452, "fair_value": 270.016115, "relative_strength": -1.70961, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.481184, "energy": 39.159497, "activity_lines": [ 297.736, 293.633762, 291.736385, 289.640649 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 303.44, "volume": 5013710, "typical_volume": 5951837.35, "trend": 286.453152, "fair_value": 270.237849, "relative_strength": -2.024715, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.071496, "energy": 32.674123, "activity_lines": [ 298.742667, 296.178037, 292.900552, 290.825519 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }