{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77a7c04f-ab27-4c2a-acf5-bef9ec4fd9db", "symbol": "SMSEUR", "name": "Invesco MSCI Europe UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.121, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.78, "architecture_energy": 72.248, "architecture_maturity": 49.232, "architecture_confidence": 77.413, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.93, "rotation_up": 61.32, "upward_expansion": 89.96, "deceleration": 50.33, "rotation_down": 27.18, "downward_expansion": 14.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 445.093341, 443.343641, 436.644287, 430.474301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 446.600006, "trend_reference": 423.875, "distance_from_trend": 0.053613, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 357.83173, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248073, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.9015, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.080179, "excess_performance": -0.090713, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053613, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03829, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248073, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028207, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059015, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01053, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080179, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.077253, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.077253, "dry_up": 0.172147, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012212, "annualized_volatility": 0.138302, "from_high_reference": -0.008437, "from_low_reference": 0.227092 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 423.875, "fair_value_reference": 357.83173, "structural_low": 392.450012, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": 0.008364, "positive_rate": 0.581395, "directional_follow_through": 0.581395, "median_excess_return": -0.008259, "regime_survival": 0.790698, "best_return": 0.057917, "worst_return": -0.061029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.023027, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.029624, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.07281, "worst_return": -0.056223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.069305, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.033122, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.123198, "worst_return": -0.118199, "sufficient": true }, { 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354.990384, "relative_strength": -3.415654, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.554607, "energy": 87.88216, "activity_lines": [ 442.920003, 439.436364, 430.901189, 425.909999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 441.450012, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 358.0, "trend": 421.289999, "fair_value": 355.909935, "relative_strength": -3.773358, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.249773, "energy": 78.853744, "activity_lines": [ 442.756673, 440.519093, 432.650714, 427.30258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 446.600006, "volume": 65, "typical_volume": 201.4, "trend": 422.748333, "fair_value": 356.85673, "relative_strength": -3.207314, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.821193, "energy": 69.81153, "activity_lines": [ 444.170007, 442.072731, 434.741667, 428.935484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 446.600006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 129.25, "trend": 423.875, "fair_value": 357.83173, "relative_strength": -5.9015, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.780278, "energy": 72.247938, "activity_lines": [ 445.093341, 443.343641, 436.644287, 430.474301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }