{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77a859f9-638c-4b5d-abc8-7fc043bddd34", "symbol": "0412", "name": "Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings Group Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.368, "architecture_energy": 66.381, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.68, "rotation_up": 27.93, "upward_expansion": 25.3, "deceleration": 50.76, "rotation_down": 53.12, "downward_expansion": 77.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.487333, 0.486091, 0.631024, 0.810742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.535, "trend_reference": 1.055667, "distance_from_trend": -0.493211, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.569551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.903942, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -78.05328, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.688953, "excess_performance": -0.673662, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.493211, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260738, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.903942, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076218, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.780533, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05998, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.688953, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.314528, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37944807, "relative_activity": 1.301331, "balance": 0.314528, "dry_up": 0.95829, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.196981, "annualized_volatility": 0.642326, "from_high_reference": -0.971143, "from_low_reference": 0.202247 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.055667, "fair_value_reference": 5.569551, "structural_low": 0.445, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.052336, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.073577, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.229474, "worst_return": -0.339806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.010652, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.067436, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.295455, "worst_return": -0.630952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.15475, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.037693, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.590909, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.933396, "energy": 71.862338, "activity_lines": [ 0.481, 0.564273, 0.7995, 0.985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.46, "volume": 22120120, "typical_volume": 31263554.1, "trend": 1.178667, "fair_value": 5.6575, "relative_strength": -86.706106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.669417, "energy": 67.134285, "activity_lines": [ 0.473667, 0.528091, 0.748214, 0.93657 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.465, "volume": 20709060, "typical_volume": 28883417.7, "trend": 1.1375, "fair_value": 5.626571, "relative_strength": -84.940692, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.880482, "energy": 65.41639, "activity_lines": [ 0.470333, 0.503182, 0.7025, 0.890527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 0.46, "volume": 30995012, "typical_volume": 28862368.0, "trend": 1.094167, "fair_value": 5.596827, "relative_strength": -82.908764, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.641047, "energy": 64.38061, "activity_lines": [ 0.466667, 0.484182, 0.660857, 0.846817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 0.535, "volume": 37944807, "typical_volume": 29158458.35, "trend": 1.055667, "fair_value": 5.569551, "relative_strength": -78.05328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.36753, "energy": 66.381281, "activity_lines": [ 0.487333, 0.486091, 0.631024, 0.810742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }