{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77ac5d65-4b33-4e61-a491-63c1cf4f7082", "symbol": "ASIANHOTNR", "name": "Asian Hotels (North) Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.629, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.1, "architecture_energy": 18.004, "architecture_maturity": 43.08, "architecture_confidence": 87.881, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.12, "rotation_up": 37.32, "upward_expansion": 62.93, "deceleration": 87.16, "rotation_down": 24.66, "downward_expansion": 12.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 306.040004, 305.979094, 303.554765, 300.703121 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 312.700012, "trend_reference": 298.415002, "distance_from_trend": 0.04787, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 256.155192, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.220744, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.455477, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.040945, "excess_performance": 0.084655, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04787, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02083, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.220744, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010817, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014555, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065612, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.040945, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.870628, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 663447, "relative_activity": 4.372651, "balance": 1.870628, "dry_up": 2.824072, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099752, "annualized_volatility": 0.391779, "from_high_reference": -0.223202, "from_low_reference": 0.263434 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 298.415002, "fair_value_reference": 256.155192, "structural_low": 247.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.009792, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.007588, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.416003, "worst_return": -0.129051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.005913, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015952, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.340647, "worst_return": -0.084965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013913, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.004657, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.823301, "worst_return": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 306.649994, "volume": 885662, "typical_volume": 120261.65, "trend": 299.706668, "fair_value": 254.164808, "relative_strength": 2.783015, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.531813, "energy": 25.193425, "activity_lines": [ 306.709998, 305.360909, 302.146906, 299.788066 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 300.100006, "volume": 60064, "typical_volume": 119501.0, "trend": 298.910002, "fair_value": 255.102949, "relative_strength": -1.842366, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.488135, "energy": 12.554277, "activity_lines": [ 304.4, 304.569092, 302.265002, 299.813443 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 312.700012, "volume": 663447, "typical_volume": 151726.5, "trend": 298.415002, "fair_value": 256.155192, "relative_strength": 1.455477, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.099688, "energy": 18.003747, "activity_lines": [ 306.040004, 305.979094, 303.554765, 300.703121 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }