{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77ad8457-a712-4ddd-ac81-b6dd9aea166c", "symbol": "CHINE", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY - MSCI China Min TE UCITS ETF EUR Acculumation", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.415, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.902, "architecture_energy": 21.533, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 41.695, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.16, "rotation_up": 44.39, "upward_expansion": 27.7, "deceleration": 41.32, "rotation_down": 15.93, "downward_expansion": 50.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.0122, 6.891836, 6.915552, 6.982796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.123, "trend_reference": 7.129167, "distance_from_trend": -0.000865, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.468734, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.101143, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.761931, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.057929, "excess_performance": -0.228821, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000865, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037717, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.101143, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02922, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177619, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036873, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057929, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.408856, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26466, "relative_activity": 0.788911, "balance": 0.408856, "dry_up": 1.04013, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02608, "annualized_volatility": 0.163321, "from_high_reference": -0.137756, "from_low_reference": 0.111406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.129167, "fair_value_reference": 6.468734, "structural_low": 6.409, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.010254, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.030094, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.316913, "worst_return": -0.11678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05703, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.070394, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.304747, "worst_return": -0.137257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.00737, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.141368, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.464699, "worst_return": -0.035708, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006377, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022047, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034058, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034402, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067024, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.947075, "energy": 54.585436, "activity_lines": [ 6.7326, 6.769818, 6.892795, 7.007781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.909, "volume": 10505, "typical_volume": 34252.5, "trend": 7.171467, "fair_value": 6.461843, "relative_strength": -18.067658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.535271, "energy": 33.589208, "activity_lines": [ 6.801667, 6.784327, 6.887005, 6.989606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.094, "volume": 19245, "typical_volume": 34676.15, "trend": 7.1511, "fair_value": 6.46492, "relative_strength": -16.07512, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.273281, "energy": 20.596449, "activity_lines": [ 6.921533, 6.836673, 6.899448, 6.984609 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.123, "volume": 26466, "typical_volume": 33547.5, "trend": 7.129167, "fair_value": 6.468734, "relative_strength": -17.761931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.902314, "energy": 21.533494, "activity_lines": [ 7.0122, 6.891836, 6.915552, 6.982796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }