{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77aeaf60-97ce-416a-a78e-0ee271015281", "symbol": "SVIX", "name": "1x Short VIX Futures ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 227, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "stage_color": "blue", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "stage_age_weeks": 10, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_score": 88.303, "is_transition_watch": true, "confidence": 66.477, "composite_score": 76.832, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_color": "green", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.255, "architecture_energy": 51.827, "architecture_maturity": 16.088, "architecture_confidence": 90.692, "architecture_age_weeks": 1, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.255, "energy": 51.827, "maturity": 16.088, "confidence": 90.692, "confirmation": 90.359, "age_weeks": 1, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Activity Lines are positively ordered above the 30-week Trend Line, with rising slopes and price acceptance. Fan expansion measures the energy of the move; contraction inside this regime warns that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.58, "rotation_up": 59.53, "upward_expansion": 80.94, "deceleration": 56.93, "rotation_down": 19.81, "downward_expansion": 7.61 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 23.843333, "10": 23.482545, "20": 22.113333, "30": 21.215914 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": 0.485098, "10": 0.69064, "20": 0.823914, "30": 0.418042 }, "bullish_order": 1.0, "bearish_order": 0.0, "fan_width_atr": 1.394482, "fan_width_change_4": -0.007647, "fan_width_percentile": 0.576923, "fast_slow_gap_atr": 1.060591, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": -0.033109, "price_acceptance": 0.666667, "current_fan_distance_atr": 0.194605, "accepted_above": 0.666667, "accepted_below": 0.0, "crossing_density": 0.25 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "Price is repairing upward toward current Fair Value.", "body": "The market remains below the long-term Fair Value anchor, so the recovery stays in Stage 1. A narrowing gap, improving relative strength, range compression and eventual resistance absorption determine whether it can graduate to Stage 2.", "phase": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 88/100." }, "latest_close": 24.21, "sma_30": 20.864667, "distance_from_sma_30": 0.160335, "sma_30_slope": 0.033689, "fair_value": 26.624679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090693, "fair_value_gap_change_13": 0.193149, "is_fair_value_repair": true, "mansfield_rs": 7.775664, "mansfield_rs_change_13": 14.961266, "range_position_52": 0.913043, "returns": { "13": 0.258316, "26": 0.06652, "52": 0.513125 }, "relative_returns": { "26": -0.018801, "52": 0.29829 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 45.89, "2": 44.0, "3": 35.03, "4": 0.0 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": true, "value": 0.160335, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": true, "value": 0.033689, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090693, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "13-week Fair Value gap", "positive": true, "value": 0.193149, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Mansfield RS vs SPY", "positive": true, "value": 0.077757, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "13-week RS change", "positive": true, "value": 0.149613, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "26-week price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06652, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "13-week volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.409689, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15659887, "ratio_20": 0.804731, "up_down_ratio_13": 3.409689, "dry_up_ratio": 0.658717, "accumulation_weeks": 1, "distribution_weeks": 0 }, "base": { "high_26": 25.17, "low_26": 14.13, "depth": 0.438617, "compression": 0.487228, "breakout_distance": -0.038141 }, "risk": { "atr_percent": 0.077825, "annualized_volatility": 0.518665, "drawdown_from_52_high": 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Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. These are exit boundaries, not entry signals.", "confidence": "separation between the leading and runner-up stage evidence scores; not forecast probability" }, "historical_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.020113, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.016212, "stage_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.166982, "worst_return": -0.323376, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.031216, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.015942, "stage_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.095511, "worst_return": -0.068604, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.129709, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.064135, "stage_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.129709, "worst_return": 0.129709, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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