{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77b031f0-1cbe-420c-a28d-a56a15eb34f1", "symbol": "OBOR", "name": "KRANESHARES TRUST MSCI ONE BELT ONE ROAD INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.148, "architecture_energy": 18.231, "architecture_maturity": 50.54, "architecture_confidence": 84.241, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.28, "rotation_up": 29.47, "upward_expansion": 17.66, "deceleration": 43.43, "rotation_down": 28.39, "downward_expansion": 65.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.63206, 26.418225, 26.765135, 27.095981 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 27.5955, "trend_reference": 27.53548, "distance_from_trend": 0.00218, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.550268, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.223733, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.362921, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016922, "excess_performance": -0.142547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00218, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005994, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.223733, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069822, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073629, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060426, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016922, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.852475, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3918, "relative_activity": 0.483554, "balance": 1.852475, "dry_up": 0.218976, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027771, "annualized_volatility": 0.184362, "from_high_reference": -0.082291, "from_low_reference": 0.159067 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.53548, "fair_value_reference": 22.550268, "structural_low": 25.5602, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.013243, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": -0.001687, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.069098, "worst_return": -0.09103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.026432, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.062716, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.038799, "worst_return": -0.095821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.020497, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.04405, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.111355, "worst_return": -0.153535, "sufficient": false 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"stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.823194, "energy": 50.056846, "activity_lines": [ 26.888627, 27.234529, 27.576083, 27.689489 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 25.9857, "volume": 4714, "typical_volume": 17609.7, "trend": 27.572496, "fair_value": 22.312043, "relative_strength": -8.384481, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.327244, "energy": 61.699552, "activity_lines": [ 26.57022, 26.945451, 27.396814, 27.588423 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 25.942, "volume": 663, "typical_volume": 16766.55, "trend": 27.579509, "fair_value": 22.3528, "relative_strength": -10.327017, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.00361, "energy": 70.899609, "activity_lines": [ 26.3114, 26.702996, 27.223311, 27.48323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.931, "volume": 2250, "typical_volume": 15804.1, "trend": 27.576536, "fair_value": 22.389741, "relative_strength": -11.392877, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.736963, "energy": 75.518649, "activity_lines": [ 26.14798, 26.495775, 27.061639, 27.376875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.7047, "volume": 1470, "typical_volume": 15184.3, "trend": 27.558767, "fair_value": 22.425846, "relative_strength": -10.614405, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.555263, "energy": 80.093927, "activity_lines": [ 25.93372, 26.283665, 26.89271, 27.256111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.9926, "volume": 1031, "typical_volume": 12138.25, "trend": 27.53202, "fair_value": 22.460481, "relative_strength": -8.927097, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.521759, "energy": 73.920706, "activity_lines": [ 25.8963, 26.173707, 26.771911, 27.155068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.5463, "volume": 678, "typical_volume": 10500.9, "trend": 27.52563, "fair_value": 22.500806, "relative_strength": -7.868894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.324893, "energy": 48.181487, "activity_lines": [ 26.108, 26.195569, 26.715511, 27.091473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.5955, "volume": 3918, "typical_volume": 8102.5, "trend": 27.53548, "fair_value": 22.550268, "relative_strength": -7.362921, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.148354, "energy": 18.230903, "activity_lines": [ 26.63206, 26.418225, 26.765135, 27.095981 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }