{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77b6b969-dbd9-4a0e-b5ed-af6fac3dc57d", "symbol": "TPIPL", "name": "TPI Polene Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 56.18, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.572, "architecture_energy": 73.799, "architecture_maturity": 19.223, "architecture_confidence": 76.998, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.04, "rotation_up": 74.43, "upward_expansion": 92.1, "deceleration": 42.18, "rotation_down": 10.85, "downward_expansion": 16.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.881333, 0.856909, 0.834286, 0.810707 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.89, "trend_reference": 0.780504, "distance_from_trend": 0.140288, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.979965, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.091804, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.310513, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.288341, "excess_performance": 0.096016, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.140288, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08124, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.091804, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07066, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.033105, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064577, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.288341, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.865031, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 172408200, "relative_activity": 0.890454, "balance": 0.865031, "dry_up": 1.433292, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060501, "annualized_volatility": 0.336563, "from_high_reference": -0.053191, "from_low_reference": 0.427085 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.780504, "fair_value_reference": 0.979965, "structural_low": 0.671622, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.03791, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.022036, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.080014, "worst_return": -0.073863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.044723, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.071705, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.080014, "worst_return": -0.16875, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.125883, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.06379, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.066823, "worst_return": -0.184944, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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31.464032, "activity_lines": [ 0.813333, 0.810364, 0.797514, 0.779089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.9, "volume": 265116000, "typical_volume": 165679000.0, "trend": 0.759347, "fair_value": 0.987002, "relative_strength": 1.118099, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.310433, "energy": 50.035287, "activity_lines": [ 0.844667, 0.826, 0.80919, 0.788675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.85, "volume": 342482900, "typical_volume": 178282930.0, "trend": 0.765613, "fair_value": 0.984446, "relative_strength": -4.144192, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.127168, "energy": 54.928448, "activity_lines": [ 0.850667, 0.831636, 0.815429, 0.794524 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.9, "volume": 330038900, "typical_volume": 191378625.0, "trend": 0.773545, "fair_value": 0.98221, "relative_strength": 3.2398, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.103955, "energy": 71.507669, "activity_lines": [ 0.870667, 0.845818, 0.825762, 0.803194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.89, "volume": 172408200, "typical_volume": 193618260.0, "trend": 0.780504, "fair_value": 0.979965, "relative_strength": 3.310513, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.571619, "energy": 73.798911, "activity_lines": [ 0.881333, 0.856909, 0.834286, 0.810707 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }