{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77bb35dc-7013-442d-9ea8-a1eaccb91da6", "symbol": "TXT", "name": "Textron Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 88.24, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.068, "architecture_energy": 27.202, "architecture_maturity": 18.198, "architecture_confidence": 89.519, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.44, "rotation_up": 21.1, "upward_expansion": 8.82, "deceleration": 39.01, "rotation_down": 45.93, "downward_expansion": 75.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 89.91, 90.621643, 90.873887, 91.193144 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 89.43, "trend_reference": 91.956797, "distance_from_trend": -0.027478, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 83.635419, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069284, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.846987, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.062564, "excess_performance": -0.188189, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027478, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019102, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069284, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043649, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09847, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047982, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.062564, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.001283, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7330070, "relative_activity": 1.036579, "balance": 1.001283, "dry_up": 1.303872, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060112, "annualized_volatility": 0.274022, "from_high_reference": -0.11914, "from_low_reference": 0.160678 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 91.956797, "fair_value_reference": 83.635419, "structural_low": 84.87, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.002965, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.009289, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.112672, "worst_return": -0.083611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.061194, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.034803, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.163744, "worst_return": -0.120716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.113903, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.020034, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.165614, 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"activity_lines": [ 92.834667, 92.142215, 91.534474, 91.810732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 85.26, "volume": 15760608, "typical_volume": 7302628.25, "trend": 92.102104, "fair_value": 83.562372, "relative_strength": -11.118728, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.117992, "energy": 27.853328, "activity_lines": [ 90.478667, 90.943291, 90.99187, 91.365538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 89.43, "volume": 7330070, "typical_volume": 7071402.65, "trend": 91.956797, "fair_value": 83.635419, "relative_strength": -9.846987, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.067733, "energy": 27.202432, "activity_lines": [ 89.91, 90.621643, 90.873887, 91.193144 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }