{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77bb6b37-abb7-49b4-aec5-409302cdb3c5", "symbol": "DGL", "name": "DGL Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.195, "architecture_energy": 44.89, "architecture_maturity": 83.864, "architecture_confidence": 94.271, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.5, "rotation_up": 30.6, "upward_expansion": 23.13, "deceleration": 42.42, "rotation_down": 40.41, "downward_expansion": 70.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.327667, 0.319545, 0.335214, 0.373269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.375, "trend_reference": 0.424167, "distance_from_trend": -0.115914, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.563205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.334168, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.987562, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.299065, "excess_performance": -0.362771, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115914, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146546, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.334168, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024958, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.229876, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052175, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.299065, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.78262, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 825866, "relative_activity": 1.090071, "balance": 0.78262, "dry_up": 0.579833, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075897, "annualized_volatility": 0.618414, "from_high_reference": -0.353448, "from_low_reference": 0.293103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.424167, "fair_value_reference": 0.563205, "structural_low": 0.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.011905, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.005065, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.171875, "worst_return": -0.264957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.149054, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.169486, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.407895, "worst_return": -0.290598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.195876, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.174456, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.150538, "worst_return": -0.303419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.253731, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125984, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042373, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057851, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0625, 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689340.05, "trend": 0.445, "fair_value": 0.572821, "relative_strength": -35.762815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.672337, "energy": 66.938583, "activity_lines": [ 0.309667, 0.314364, 0.352833, 0.394667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.3, "volume": 255210, "typical_volume": 702100.55, "trend": 0.437167, "fair_value": 0.568974, "relative_strength": -35.317573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.485687, "energy": 65.986413, "activity_lines": [ 0.306667, 0.310182, 0.34331, 0.385312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.305, "volume": 284644, "typical_volume": 716332.75, "trend": 0.4295, "fair_value": 0.565705, "relative_strength": -35.491945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.414314, "energy": 63.539085, "activity_lines": [ 0.305333, 0.308182, 0.335381, 0.376785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.375, "volume": 825866, "typical_volume": 757626.05, "trend": 0.424167, "fair_value": 0.563205, "relative_strength": -22.987562, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.195217, "energy": 44.890141, "activity_lines": [ 0.327667, 0.319545, 0.335214, 0.373269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }