{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77c83bb1-247a-46da-b1da-144fa69537d6", "symbol": "000892", "name": "H&R Century Union Corporation", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.994, "architecture_energy": 43.207, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 59.498, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.9, "rotation_up": 27.17, "upward_expansion": 18.43, "deceleration": 66.89, "rotation_down": 42.87, "downward_expansion": 68.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.727333, 3.660182, 3.968952, 4.530215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.16, "trend_reference": 5.415667, "distance_from_trend": -0.231858, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.280064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.028052, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.619019, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.455497, "excess_performance": -0.462897, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.231858, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183239, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.028052, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123645, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.31619, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022794, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.455497, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.201194, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 599643404, "relative_activity": 2.531475, "balance": 1.201194, "dry_up": 2.121488, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143861, "annualized_volatility": 0.731688, "from_high_reference": -0.578521, "from_low_reference": 0.424658 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.415667, "fair_value_reference": 4.280064, "structural_low": 2.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.003289, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.014868, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.186047, "worst_return": -0.244851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.022727, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.030938, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.416667, "worst_return": -0.288684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.137352, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.060615, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.531746, "worst_return": -0.22807, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.445183, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119804, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139881, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045267, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070248, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-26", 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"fair_value": 4.297436, "relative_strength": -36.48715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.477092, "energy": 64.288519, "activity_lines": [ 3.692, 3.803455, 4.410476, 5.068086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.59, "volume": 558090905, "typical_volume": 189808949.4, "trend": 5.756333, "fair_value": 4.2925, "relative_strength": -39.789737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.228113, "energy": 59.94286, "activity_lines": [ 3.678667, 3.733818, 4.274, 4.920301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.99, "volume": 444244811, "typical_volume": 200778074.15, "trend": 5.620333, "fair_value": 4.284679, "relative_strength": -49.62802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.385036, "energy": 67.532778, "activity_lines": [ 3.47, 3.576364, 4.097286, 4.741828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.69, "volume": 408131582, "typical_volume": 212956745.45, "trend": 5.509667, "fair_value": 4.280192, "relative_strength": -36.465587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.373181, "energy": 52.696254, "activity_lines": [ 3.533333, 3.571273, 4.004571, 4.61729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.16, "volume": 599643404, "typical_volume": 236875101.3, "trend": 5.415667, "fair_value": 4.280064, "relative_strength": -31.619019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.994445, "energy": 43.207362, "activity_lines": [ 3.727333, 3.660182, 3.968952, 4.530215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }