{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77cc71f7-954a-47f1-b103-fce245c00011", "symbol": "TKN", "name": "Taokaenoi Food & Marketing Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.543, "architecture_energy": 40.662, "architecture_maturity": 28.489, "architecture_confidence": 77.259, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.82, "rotation_up": 53.96, "upward_expansion": 78.71, "deceleration": 53.15, "rotation_down": 18.79, "downward_expansion": 5.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.169333, 4.144364, 4.099619, 4.071637 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.28, "trend_reference": 4.052619, "distance_from_trend": 0.056107, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.124277, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.399237, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.092857, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.052586, "excess_performance": -0.139739, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056107, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007374, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.399237, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0838, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160929, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132263, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052586, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.445268, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6474100, "relative_activity": 1.137351, "balance": 2.445268, "dry_up": 0.959619, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040618, "annualized_volatility": 0.211152, "from_high_reference": -0.314595, "from_low_reference": 0.169399 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.052619, "fair_value_reference": 7.124277, "structural_low": 3.66, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.009901, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.007195, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.12963, "worst_return": -0.111539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.089203, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.116671, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.784059, "worst_return": -0.324138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.100914, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.036494, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.561647, "worst_return": -0.298333, "sufficient": true }, { 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.196241, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.205453, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033816, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.097352, "volume": 63365800, "typical_volume": 35360465.0, "trend": 9.152785, "fair_value": 7.527377, "relative_strength": 35.214174, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.73927, "energy": 28.579056, "activity_lines": [ 4.116, 4.108364, 4.046758, 4.038105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.12, "volume": 9851200, "typical_volume": 6488790.0, "trend": 4.021917, "fair_value": 7.237156, "relative_strength": -23.186291, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.885142, "energy": 31.694999, "activity_lines": [ 4.125333, 4.114545, 4.056619, 4.045131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.1, "volume": 4068100, "typical_volume": 5890620.0, "trend": 4.029498, "fair_value": 7.200022, "relative_strength": -22.876399, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.629751, "energy": 24.216423, "activity_lines": [ 4.118667, 4.113455, 4.065333, 4.050169 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.12, "volume": 1456200, "typical_volume": 5671490.0, "trend": 4.037747, "fair_value": 7.164118, "relative_strength": -20.692128, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.773545, "energy": 23.607164, "activity_lines": [ 4.114667, 4.114182, 4.075238, 4.056008 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.28, "volume": 6474100, "typical_volume": 5692260.0, "trend": 4.052619, "fair_value": 7.124277, "relative_strength": -16.092857, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.542829, "energy": 40.66179, "activity_lines": [ 4.169333, 4.144364, 4.099619, 4.071637 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }