{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77d301a4-a126-402f-bdd8-d88fd7b3ef43", "symbol": "002661", "name": "Chen Ke Ming Food Manufacturing Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.254, "architecture_energy": 35.673, "architecture_maturity": 91.33, "architecture_confidence": 65.334, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.13, "rotation_up": 26.25, "upward_expansion": 16.85, "deceleration": 66.92, "rotation_down": 37.35, "downward_expansion": 64.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.364667, 7.333091, 7.617493, 7.962037 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.49, "trend_reference": 8.417813, "distance_from_trend": -0.11022, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.816312, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.150438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.060799, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.217346, "excess_performance": -0.224746, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11022, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072205, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.150438, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107044, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190608, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078048, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.217346, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.387788, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12963861, "relative_activity": 0.894182, "balance": 0.387788, "dry_up": 1.182222, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072144, "annualized_volatility": 0.275766, "from_high_reference": -0.312815, "from_low_reference": 0.091837 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.417813, "fair_value_reference": 8.816312, "structural_low": 6.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.016701, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.006249, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.228169, "worst_return": -0.135321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.051688, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.023564, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.306283, "worst_return": -0.168586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.071634, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.018342, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.286248, "worst_return": -0.210471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.310555, "energy": 80.546069, "activity_lines": [ 7.261333, 7.474954, 7.934862, 8.278054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.38, "volume": 17492860, "typical_volume": 15164090.5, "trend": 8.604268, "fair_value": 8.869455, "relative_strength": -19.627995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.76396, "energy": 58.479191, "activity_lines": [ 7.275333, 7.414585, 7.843603, 8.19571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.89, "volume": 18990229, "typical_volume": 14864673.8, "trend": 8.519802, "fair_value": 8.847406, "relative_strength": -24.376722, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.968951, "energy": 59.933613, "activity_lines": [ 7.157333, 7.288588, 7.715868, 8.085112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.59, "volume": 19112529, "typical_volume": 14790882.25, "trend": 8.467851, "fair_value": 8.830503, "relative_strength": -14.579608, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.506375, "energy": 45.876926, "activity_lines": [ 7.298667, 7.315993, 7.666895, 8.025124 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.49, "volume": 12963861, "typical_volume": 14498010.4, "trend": 8.417813, "fair_value": 8.816312, "relative_strength": -19.060799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.25372, "energy": 35.6734, "activity_lines": [ 7.364667, 7.333091, 7.617493, 7.962037 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }