{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77d40055-1765-447a-8e3b-bcd521a086ba", "symbol": "NTZ", "name": "Natuzzi SpA", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.774, "architecture_energy": 88.624, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.919, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 11.78, "upward_expansion": 21.74, "deceleration": 37.09, "rotation_down": 80.64, "downward_expansion": 99.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.361333, 1.563636, 1.959786, 2.221849 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.32, "trend_reference": 2.537167, "distance_from_trend": -0.479735, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.306454, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.693483, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -56.79343, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.582278, "excess_performance": -0.707903, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.479735, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093463, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.693483, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.296321, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.567934, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.387213, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.582278, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.2443, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22576, "relative_activity": 1.366648, "balance": 0.2443, "dry_up": 0.929037, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.222587, "annualized_volatility": 0.515004, "from_high_reference": -0.674877, "from_low_reference": 0.157895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.537167, "fair_value_reference": 4.306454, "structural_low": 1.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.055687, "positive_rate": 0.441176, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.079747, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.337778, "worst_return": -0.293629, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.094898, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.092132, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.39, "worst_return": -0.363014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.15625, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.265642, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.093541, "worst_return": -0.430612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.2736, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.204344, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.14552, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.169591, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.240398, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.784504, "energy": 91.392328, "activity_lines": [ 1.577333, 1.797091, 2.17475, 2.394882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.22, "volume": 7208, "typical_volume": 18676.7, "trend": 2.5895, "fair_value": 4.341616, "relative_strength": -59.170372, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.8194, "energy": 93.387546, "activity_lines": [ 1.429333, 1.659273, 2.058714, 2.303753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.32, "volume": 22576, "typical_volume": 16519.25, "trend": 2.537167, "fair_value": 4.306454, "relative_strength": -56.79343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.774448, "energy": 88.624367, "activity_lines": [ 1.361333, 1.563636, 1.959786, 2.221849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }