{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77dbad98-9896-4187-b93f-f098289a22f9", "symbol": "STLA", "name": "Stellantis NV", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.768, "architecture_energy": 55.755, "architecture_maturity": 47.593, "architecture_confidence": 94.524, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.21, "rotation_up": 23.06, "upward_expansion": 8.84, "deceleration": 53.97, "rotation_down": 57.71, "downward_expansion": 82.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.652667, 5.776909, 6.401476, 6.715871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.52, "trend_reference": 7.234667, "distance_from_trend": -0.237007, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.3826, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.554213, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.127616, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.241758, "excess_performance": -0.367383, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.237007, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18672, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.554213, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148616, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.431276, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15748, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.241758, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.754452, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110595831, "relative_activity": 1.125843, "balance": 0.754452, "dry_up": 1.132174, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118896, "annualized_volatility": 0.50106, "from_high_reference": -0.548278, "from_low_reference": 0.051429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.234667, "fair_value_reference": 12.3826, "structural_low": 5.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.009848, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.00181, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.201192, "worst_return": -0.246184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.016862, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.064457, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.3347, "worst_return": -0.359429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.137103, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.09424, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.058651, "worst_return": -0.383063, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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6.109333, 6.656545, 7.058714, 7.405871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.5, "volume": 91513645, "typical_volume": 95251062.25, "trend": 7.973333, "fair_value": 12.628778, "relative_strength": -44.494846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.549418, "energy": 85.508371, "activity_lines": [ 5.822, 6.388182, 6.894238, 7.232796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.79, "volume": 101621272, "typical_volume": 96807462.55, "trend": 7.781667, "fair_value": 12.572141, "relative_strength": -40.033772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.461474, "energy": 80.741538, "activity_lines": [ 5.738667, 6.202182, 6.768, 7.091935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.69, "volume": 67726372, "typical_volume": 95646837.8, "trend": 7.603, "fair_value": 12.503622, "relative_strength": -39.977504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.05715, "energy": 75.364638, "activity_lines": [ 5.694, 6.033455, 6.64319, 6.956989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.76, "volume": 164927455, "typical_volume": 98633479.05, "trend": 7.414333, "fair_value": 12.441275, "relative_strength": -39.298837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.837448, "energy": 61.047507, "activity_lines": [ 5.716, 5.910182, 6.532, 6.838086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.52, "volume": 110595831, "typical_volume": 98233808.05, "trend": 7.234667, "fair_value": 12.3826, "relative_strength": -43.127616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.768343, "energy": 55.754618, "activity_lines": [ 5.652667, 5.776909, 6.401476, 6.715871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }