{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77de852e-a6b9-4842-9b8b-a933442898b8", "symbol": "AUCO", "name": "L&G Gold Mining UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.343, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.505, "architecture_energy": 23.255, "architecture_maturity": 48.197, "architecture_confidence": 59.698, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.04, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 17.67, "deceleration": 62.73, "rotation_down": 36.6, "downward_expansion": 67.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.129333, 79.116545, 81.662191, 84.66871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 91.150002, "trend_reference": 88.947, "distance_from_trend": 0.024768, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.913654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.7558, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.923506, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.041535, "excess_performance": -0.124419, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024768, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013862, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.7558, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18029, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009235, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188394, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041535, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.552095, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2523, "relative_activity": 0.252136, "balance": 0.552095, "dry_up": 0.110128, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068644, "annualized_volatility": 0.567211, "from_high_reference": -0.21652, "from_low_reference": 0.610993 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 88.947, "fair_value_reference": 51.913654, "structural_low": 71.699997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.000393, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.002495, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.173111, "worst_return": -0.118796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006099, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.052845, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.367285, "worst_return": -0.065076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.109188, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.145501, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.278308, "worst_return": 0.003344, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012012, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.117442, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.137408, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.024327, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113343, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112825, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091856, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.880225, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.175139, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119779, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 23.59, "volume": 436, "typical_volume": 813.35, "trend": 27.7495, "fair_value": 29.718558, "relative_strength": -8.719091, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.062015, "energy": 63.600158, "activity_lines": [ 79.026667, 80.455455, 84.549714, 87.576817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 71.730003, "volume": 1108, "typical_volume": 15086.85, "trend": 89.776666, "fair_value": 50.860064, "relative_strength": -20.15183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.285412, "energy": 73.221547, "activity_lines": [ 76.582001, 78.515637, 82.981429, 86.380538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.669998, "volume": 545, "typical_volume": 13010.25, "trend": 89.333333, "fair_value": 51.173077, "relative_strength": -15.906593, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.019696, "energy": 63.704646, "activity_lines": [ 75.818, 77.659637, 81.978143, 85.47043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.699997, "volume": 232, "typical_volume": 10891.3, "trend": 88.943333, "fair_value": 51.489006, "relative_strength": -17.32067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.445125, "energy": 68.511268, "activity_lines": [ 75.112666, 76.81709, 80.996047, 84.526344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 91.150002, "volume": 2523, "typical_volume": 10006.5, "trend": 88.947, "fair_value": 51.913654, "relative_strength": -0.923506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.505133, "energy": 23.255364, "activity_lines": [ 80.129333, 79.116545, 81.662191, 84.66871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }