{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77f094a2-02c2-4278-ab8e-06b68391ea2e", "symbol": "600030", "name": "CITIC Securities Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 53.492, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.377, "architecture_energy": 37.667, "architecture_maturity": 14.922, "architecture_confidence": 65.11, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.1, "rotation_up": 48.7, "upward_expansion": 76.03, "deceleration": 66.02, "rotation_down": 20.52, "downward_expansion": 5.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.061334, 27.923593, 27.177493, 26.850969 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.950001, "trend_reference": 26.749729, "distance_from_trend": 0.04487, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.383095, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.146286, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.514137, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.005728, "excess_performance": 0.048932, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04487, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008171, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.146286, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028339, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015141, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136627, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005728, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.052378, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 559625476, "relative_activity": 0.912024, "balance": 1.052378, "dry_up": 1.132727, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046976, "annualized_volatility": 0.190244, "from_high_reference": -0.131853, "from_low_reference": 0.195051 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.749729, "fair_value_reference": 24.383095, "structural_low": 23.388116, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.003274, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014875, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.100179, "worst_return": -0.186454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.000547, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.004388, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.126311, "worst_return": -0.138928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.020188, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.02184, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.156367, "worst_return": -0.139734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 27.6, "volume": 831306815, "typical_volume": 601708627.2, "trend": 26.792039, "fair_value": 24.205873, "relative_strength": 4.335971, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.788227, "energy": 60.238976, "activity_lines": [ 28.032667, 27.326368, 26.658451, 26.593214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.950001, "volume": 730503588, "typical_volume": 608166655.9, "trend": 26.777551, "fair_value": 24.265113, "relative_strength": 4.426744, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.499967, "energy": 55.196839, "activity_lines": [ 28.066, 27.538911, 26.825306, 26.667921 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.43, "volume": 658767599, "typical_volume": 617170217.35, "trend": 26.765207, "fair_value": 24.325225, "relative_strength": 5.919641, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.927934, "energy": 52.012252, "activity_lines": [ 28.166667, 27.80194, 27.030638, 26.774531 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.950001, "volume": 559625476, "typical_volume": 613608334.6, "trend": 26.749729, "fair_value": 24.383095, "relative_strength": 1.514137, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.377434, "energy": 37.66699, "activity_lines": [ 28.061334, 27.923593, 27.177493, 26.850969 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }