{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77f13011-deb2-456a-a54e-3f401359a54d", "symbol": "600855", "name": "Beijing Aerospace Changfeng Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.468, "architecture_energy": 82.394, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.35, "rotation_up": 13.5, "upward_expansion": 20.63, "deceleration": 37.74, "rotation_down": 68.01, "downward_expansion": 91.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.210667, 12.872909, 14.609381, 15.706667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.81, "trend_reference": 17.444, "distance_from_trend": -0.26565, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.861144, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.003977, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.503555, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.354009, "excess_performance": -0.310805, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.26565, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075063, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.003977, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.622064, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.235036, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.376992, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.354009, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.24808, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32435551, "relative_activity": 0.495493, "balance": 0.24808, "dry_up": 0.669431, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124962, "annualized_volatility": 0.53132, "from_high_reference": -0.573, "from_low_reference": 0.213068 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.444, "fair_value_reference": 12.861144, "structural_low": 10.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.001163, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001065, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.201432, "worst_return": -0.267161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.099488, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.054575, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.326667, "worst_return": -0.255421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.146967, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.128175, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.3, "worst_return": -0.288225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.213227, "energy": 83.597882, "activity_lines": [ 13.172667, 14.15, 15.832095, 16.840236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.39, "volume": 44695989, "typical_volume": 67385919.4, "trend": 17.977, "fair_value": 12.859236, "relative_strength": -30.179466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.963248, "energy": 88.152371, "activity_lines": [ 12.418667, 13.454545, 15.320952, 16.397978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.17, "volume": 39371487, "typical_volume": 66062466.35, "trend": 17.718333, "fair_value": 12.856697, "relative_strength": -25.525368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.913237, "energy": 83.025815, "activity_lines": [ 12.151333, 13.052182, 14.921095, 16.023333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.81, "volume": 32435551, "typical_volume": 65461149.35, "trend": 17.444, "fair_value": 12.861144, "relative_strength": -23.503555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.467693, "energy": 82.394301, "activity_lines": [ 12.210667, 12.872909, 14.609381, 15.706667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }