{ "ticker": { "uuid": "77fba5e6-e36c-4057-83a5-d4fef9bdd689", "symbol": "7781", "name": "TPIsoftware", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 70.307, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.918, "architecture_energy": 36.392, "architecture_maturity": 2.972, "architecture_confidence": 45.638, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.07, "rotation_up": 15.89, "upward_expansion": 25.17, "deceleration": 54.37, "rotation_down": 57.67, "downward_expansion": 41.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.66, 25.585594, 27.216409, 27.13917 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.1, "trend_reference": 25.408628, "distance_from_trend": -0.012147, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.242783, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.050187, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.021308, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.300518, "excess_performance": -0.140854, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012147, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.393654, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.050187, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.021045, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.190213, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.810156, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.300518, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.703624, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4748114, "relative_activity": 0.321555, "balance": 0.703624, "dry_up": 0.464408, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133187, "annualized_volatility": 0.737085, "from_high_reference": -0.378713, "from_low_reference": 4.743707 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.408628, "fair_value_reference": 12.242783, "structural_low": 15.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028239, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.194399, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-14", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 8.4, "volume": 34050747, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null 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28.777305, 29.089238, 26.773308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.299999, "volume": 6132923, "typical_volume": 24636698.75, "trend": 22.801961, "fair_value": 11.697515, "relative_strength": 36.251905, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.290472, "energy": 9.764304, "activity_lines": [ 27.168588, 28.081326, 28.823625, 26.978493 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.549999, "volume": 7597246, "typical_volume": 23740137.0, "trend": 23.392294, "fair_value": 11.818098, "relative_strength": 17.243601, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -17.428971, "energy": 27.842514, "activity_lines": [ 25.466666, 26.960802, 28.26563, 26.962238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.4, "volume": 10783903, "typical_volume": 22630032.25, "trend": 24.078294, "fair_value": 11.96735, "relative_strength": 31.609716, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.517149, "energy": 25.986175, "activity_lines": [ 25.1, 26.495733, 27.959541, 27.091767 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.450001, "volume": 4300746, "typical_volume": 16976049.1, "trend": 24.736961, "fair_value": 12.103031, "relative_strength": 21.791309, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.764873, "energy": 38.266326, "activity_lines": [ 24.64, 25.927936, 27.53988, 27.115748 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 25.1, "volume": 4748114, "typical_volume": 14766114.9, "trend": 25.408628, "fair_value": 12.242783, "relative_strength": 19.021308, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.91844, "energy": 36.392058, "activity_lines": [ 24.66, 25.585594, 27.216409, 27.13917 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }