{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7800c199-d863-42fd-bb0f-ebadb25d1cea", "symbol": "S85", "name": "Straco Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.857, "architecture_energy": 52.82, "architecture_maturity": 18.238, "architecture_confidence": 83.305, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.11, "rotation_up": 14.54, "upward_expansion": 6.76, "deceleration": 46.67, "rotation_down": 63.11, "downward_expansion": 77.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.343667, 0.346364, 0.35182, 0.354378 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.33, "trend_reference": 0.357906, "distance_from_trend": -0.07797, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.395428, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16546, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.356362, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.09589, "excess_performance": -0.250726, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07797, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018988, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.16546, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041478, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243564, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084176, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09589, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.317187, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 478100, "relative_activity": 3.546473, "balance": 0.317187, "dry_up": 1.285327, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0338, "annualized_volatility": 0.187573, "from_high_reference": -0.19162, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.357906, "fair_value_reference": 0.395428, "structural_low": 0.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.459459, "directional_follow_through": 0.459459, "median_excess_return": -0.016314, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.149999, "worst_return": -0.093749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.012659, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.063698, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.194807, "worst_return": -0.171718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.033335, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.118352, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.210529, "worst_return": -0.233645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.35625, 0.358171 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.35, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 117165.0, "trend": 0.360072, "fair_value": 0.396554, "relative_strength": -19.113813, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.695941, "energy": 64.271138, "activity_lines": [ 0.348333, 0.352636, 0.355477, 0.357469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.345, "volume": 183800, "typical_volume": 117770.0, "trend": 0.359246, "fair_value": 0.396311, "relative_strength": -20.73395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.688327, "energy": 61.106434, "activity_lines": [ 0.347, 0.350455, 0.354368, 0.356496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.355, "volume": 31200, "typical_volume": 117275.0, "trend": 0.358592, "fair_value": 0.39602, "relative_strength": -18.355269, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.384263, "energy": 30.804856, "activity_lines": [ 0.349667, 0.350545, 0.354283, 0.356222 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.33, "volume": 478100, "typical_volume": 134810.0, "trend": 0.357906, "fair_value": 0.395428, "relative_strength": -24.356362, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.856796, "energy": 52.820461, "activity_lines": [ 0.343667, 0.346364, 0.35182, 0.354378 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }