{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7808b313-acd2-48f2-a160-76c900927e35", "symbol": "GBT", "name": "BMTC Group Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 70.642, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.922, "architecture_energy": 59.87, "architecture_maturity": 4.186, "architecture_confidence": 90.816, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.92, "rotation_up": 15.92, "upward_expansion": 17.56, "deceleration": 31.91, "rotation_down": 66.08, "downward_expansion": 86.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.66, 12.755965, 12.833115, 12.885503 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.61, "trend_reference": 12.964316, "distance_from_trend": -0.02733, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.686745, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.006049, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.001641, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014844, "excess_performance": -0.135265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02733, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003882, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.006049, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032544, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.130016, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028921, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014844, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.1125, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 600, "relative_activity": 0.128894, "balance": 0.1125, "dry_up": 1.219119, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024652, "annualized_volatility": 0.22399, "from_high_reference": -0.120642, "from_low_reference": 0.065299 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.964316, "fair_value_reference": 12.686745, "structural_low": 12.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.030379, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.003952, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.170918, "worst_return": -0.086567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.067894, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.022106, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.13548, "worst_return": -0.048999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.068365, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.083007, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.208736, "worst_return": -0.063427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 12.915204, 12.930486, 12.946198, 12.978939 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.0, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 4635.0, "trend": 12.99765, "fair_value": 12.743141, "relative_strength": -9.817691, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.085847, "energy": 9.566959, "activity_lines": [ 12.961797, 12.943932, 12.94601, 12.980553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.71, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 4165.0, "trend": 13.01965, "fair_value": 12.730637, "relative_strength": -11.144302, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.991698, "energy": 18.540093, "activity_lines": [ 12.881333, 12.89439, 12.918203, 12.961995 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.65, "volume": 11500, "typical_volume": 4435.0, "trend": 13.026983, "fair_value": 12.716017, "relative_strength": -11.244145, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.472343, "energy": 32.707279, "activity_lines": [ 12.804, 12.84222, 12.888444, 12.938146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.62, "volume": 9400, "typical_volume": 4770.0, "trend": 13.018983, "fair_value": 12.700427, "relative_strength": -10.514417, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.89625, "energy": 47.59256, "activity_lines": [ 12.722, 12.795581, 12.859875, 12.911889 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.61, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 4655.0, "trend": 12.964316, "fair_value": 12.686745, "relative_strength": -13.001641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.921552, "energy": 59.869508, "activity_lines": [ 12.66, 12.755965, 12.833115, 12.885503 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }