{ "ticker": { "uuid": "780985e0-0b7c-449b-9aeb-8a90d7c139e7", "symbol": "000695", "name": "Tianjin Binhai Energy & Development Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.678, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.517, "architecture_energy": 31.929, "architecture_maturity": 19.908, "architecture_confidence": 83.289, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.36, "rotation_up": 18.03, "upward_expansion": 3.33, "deceleration": 53.44, "rotation_down": 48.97, "downward_expansion": 74.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.648667, 12.727273, 13.439048, 13.56172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.69, "trend_reference": 13.562333, "distance_from_trend": -0.06432, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.374231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.11568, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.678966, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.028363, "excess_performance": 0.020963, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06432, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021571, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.11568, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207113, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06679, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00637, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028363, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.451865, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23516500, "relative_activity": 0.39379, "balance": 1.451865, "dry_up": 0.570672, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117718, "annualized_volatility": 0.547526, "from_high_reference": -0.340779, "from_low_reference": 0.200568 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.562333, "fair_value_reference": 11.374231, "structural_low": 11.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.043178, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.089086, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.259259, "worst_return": 0.014388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.03927, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026806, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.222422, "worst_return": -0.129323, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.270323, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.220085, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.344395, "worst_return": -0.215038, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.347162, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.051597, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.713341, "worst_return": -0.388722, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043523, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.186681, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.211292, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029928, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050198, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01022, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051871, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01704, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.326671, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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13.761429, 13.72572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.91, "volume": 47554326, "typical_volume": 67826240.15, "trend": 13.609, "fair_value": 11.383718, "relative_strength": -2.059943, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.271965, "energy": 38.851805, "activity_lines": [ 12.592, 12.976, 13.666048, 13.68185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.62, "volume": 26866304, "typical_volume": 64037634.7, "trend": 13.563, "fair_value": 11.376603, "relative_strength": -2.565904, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.358109, "energy": 26.627988, "activity_lines": [ 12.617333, 12.813455, 13.544905, 13.618043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.69, "volume": 23516500, "typical_volume": 59718384.9, "trend": 13.562333, "fair_value": 11.374231, "relative_strength": -6.678966, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.516972, "energy": 31.929007, "activity_lines": [ 12.648667, 12.727273, 13.439048, 13.56172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }