{ "ticker": { "uuid": "780cc31b-f304-4284-a294-16b8016da164", "symbol": "IBKR", "name": "Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.865, "architecture_energy": 55.361, "architecture_maturity": 88.585, "architecture_confidence": 71.75, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.89, "rotation_up": 46.21, "upward_expansion": 72.5, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.96, "downward_expansion": 22.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 1571.52133, 1583.892179, 1528.648594, 1462.667588 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1489.619995, "trend_reference": 1392.404618, "distance_from_trend": 0.069818, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 847.4237, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.757822, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.869774, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.107661, "excess_performance": 0.162328, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069818, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095787, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.757822, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083109, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.108698, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053416, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107661, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.200568, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2252, "relative_activity": 10.749403, "balance": 0.200568, "dry_up": 3.468974, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030555, "annualized_volatility": 0.282429, "from_high_reference": -0.110675, "from_low_reference": 0.320252 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1392.404618, "fair_value_reference": 847.4237, "structural_low": 1166.930664, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.46875, "directional_follow_through": 0.46875, "median_excess_return": -0.000938, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.667789, "worst_return": -0.375832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.041035, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.020643, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.268494, "worst_return": -0.052995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.167432, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.010179, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.52049, "worst_return": -0.219055, "sufficient": true }, 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1405.469891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1675.0, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 86.25, "trend": 1357.792342, "fair_value": 824.773113, "relative_strength": 26.153562, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.993162, "energy": 97.480291, "activity_lines": [ 1633.925326, 1585.716553, 1489.962053, 1427.018653 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1589.0, "volume": 605, "typical_volume": 116.5, "trend": 1371.723832, "fair_value": 832.552736, "relative_strength": 19.630529, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.515774, "energy": 71.280055, "activity_lines": [ 1622.677328, 1594.35868, 1507.886556, 1441.935277 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1589.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 96.9, "trend": 1385.545333, "fair_value": 840.332359, "relative_strength": 18.430723, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.083654, "energy": 67.974907, "activity_lines": [ 1613.962663, 1599.252224, 1523.958339, 1455.953094 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1489.619995, "volume": 2252, "typical_volume": 209.5, "trend": 1392.404618, "fair_value": 847.4237, "relative_strength": 10.869774, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.864816, "energy": 55.360537, "activity_lines": [ 1571.52133, 1583.892179, 1528.648594, 1462.667588 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }