{ "ticker": { "uuid": "780eb377-1b6f-4e6b-ac0d-94965f646674", "symbol": "AIQ", "name": "Alternative Investment Trust", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.383, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.858, "architecture_energy": 23.03, "architecture_maturity": 53.554, "architecture_confidence": 82.378, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.53, "rotation_up": 23.82, "upward_expansion": 6.42, "deceleration": 53.78, "rotation_down": 43.85, "downward_expansion": 72.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.367984, 1.370729, 1.377488, 1.382704 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.37, "trend_reference": 1.391133, "distance_from_trend": -0.015191, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.32529, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.033736, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.683112, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.00927, "excess_performance": -0.072976, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015191, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008494, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.033736, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055562, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076831, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05216, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00927, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.145709, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123661, "relative_activity": 0.91346, "balance": 1.145709, "dry_up": 0.796008, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033419, "annualized_volatility": 0.159808, "from_high_reference": -0.200442, "from_low_reference": 0.044133 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.391133, "fair_value_reference": 1.32529, "structural_low": 1.312093, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.004334, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.39521, "worst_return": -0.04762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010642, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.042803, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.39521, "worst_return": -0.03627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.133023, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.179333, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.381509, "worst_return": -0.026014, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.195554, "energy": 59.936743, "activity_lines": [ 1.372887, 1.380905, 1.383722, 1.389614 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.392102, "volume": 190725, "typical_volume": 128132.9, "trend": 1.396042, "fair_value": 1.321581, "relative_strength": -2.715406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.413382, "energy": 43.27212, "activity_lines": [ 1.377701, 1.381591, 1.383892, 1.389324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.314222, "volume": 111120, "typical_volume": 133659.9, "trend": 1.393205, "fair_value": 1.322525, "relative_strength": -7.317608, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.426968, "energy": 52.329776, "activity_lines": [ 1.356082, 1.368624, 1.376937, 1.384045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.395, "volume": 5537, "typical_volume": 129396.55, "trend": 1.392586, "fair_value": 1.323988, "relative_strength": -3.311029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.899627, "energy": 25.077203, "activity_lines": [ 1.367108, 1.371904, 1.378362, 1.384161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.37, "volume": 123661, "typical_volume": 135376.45, "trend": 1.391133, "fair_value": 1.32529, "relative_strength": -7.683112, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.857872, "energy": 23.030069, "activity_lines": [ 1.367984, 1.370729, 1.377488, 1.382704 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }