{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7819172b-2c53-474e-8101-bdad33d61d55", "symbol": "3162", "name": "United Alloy-Tech Company", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.485, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.013, "architecture_energy": 58.212, "architecture_maturity": 11.142, "architecture_confidence": 79.58, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.82, "rotation_up": 14.14, "upward_expansion": 27.58, "deceleration": 49.53, "rotation_down": 68.88, "downward_expansion": 54.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.793334, 68.645242, 74.028318, 72.268723 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 62.900002, "trend_reference": 69.065789, "distance_from_trend": -0.089274, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.780023, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.289462, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.097518, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.115047, "excess_performance": -0.326325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089274, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073641, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.289462, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.485833, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.280975, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.293854, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115047, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.826699, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3615305, "relative_activity": 0.207227, "balance": 0.826699, "dry_up": 0.235418, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148257, "annualized_volatility": 0.629587, "from_high_reference": -0.350126, "from_low_reference": 0.384755 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.065789, "fair_value_reference": 48.780023, "structural_low": 51.956724, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.110826, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.085245, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.231343, "worst_return": 0.039832, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.274214, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.106604, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.288256, "worst_return": -0.020964, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.245552, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.090824, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.440934, "worst_return": -0.049266, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"direction": -1.945733, "energy": 11.134902, "activity_lines": [ 73.468013, 77.436398, 77.651477, 73.73591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.0, "volume": 4774220, "typical_volume": 18149979.1, "trend": 68.959959, "fair_value": 48.578353, "relative_strength": -28.983461, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.767911, "energy": 34.16274, "activity_lines": [ 67.774625, 73.608979, 76.250224, 73.097412 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.200001, "volume": 3531443, "typical_volume": 17568532.15, "trend": 68.984713, "fair_value": 48.673018, "relative_strength": -26.729989, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.249087, "energy": 53.112918, "activity_lines": [ 64.433334, 70.866897, 75.125378, 72.661285 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 62.900002, "volume": 3615305, "typical_volume": 17446075.1, "trend": 69.065789, "fair_value": 48.780023, "relative_strength": -28.097518, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.013397, "energy": 58.211862, "activity_lines": [ 62.793334, 68.645242, 74.028318, 72.268723 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }