{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7820bd76-f4f9-43a2-aadf-2b2e8321f455", "symbol": "DXYZ", "name": "Destiny Tech100 Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.44, "architecture_energy": 27.678, "architecture_maturity": 24.663, "architecture_confidence": 65.796, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.42, "rotation_up": 22.5, "upward_expansion": 9.93, "deceleration": 56.26, "rotation_down": 53.89, "downward_expansion": 49.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.701333, 25.586364, 31.822667, 32.141441 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.89, "trend_reference": 32.114667, "distance_from_trend": -0.193826, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.565081, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.152955, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.764999, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.161593, "excess_performance": -0.287218, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193826, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002547, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.152955, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.962635, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.22765, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.791787, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.161593, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.22404, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4344832, "relative_activity": 0.258462, "balance": 0.22404, "dry_up": 0.297578, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.39877, "annualized_volatility": 1.182555, "from_high_reference": -0.64471, "from_low_reference": 0.313513 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.114667, "fair_value_reference": 30.565081, "structural_low": 20.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.075397, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.089032, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.075397, "worst_return": -0.075397, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102117, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.24236, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.122211, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.490842, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098016, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118598, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-03-29", "close": 25.0, "volume": 4281695, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-04-05", "close": 59.2, "volume": 11079269, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": 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"trend": 33.252667, "fair_value": 30.792857, "relative_strength": -26.157918, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.733419, "energy": 35.712065, "activity_lines": [ 27.208667, 35.762909, 35.987429, 34.584366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.67, "volume": 5072775, "typical_volume": 16503940.5, "trend": 32.909667, "fair_value": 30.766833, "relative_strength": -17.916415, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.729307, "energy": 34.921129, "activity_lines": [ 26.525333, 33.436182, 35.377762, 34.224194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.97, "volume": 4864361, "typical_volume": 16551387.4, "trend": 32.734333, "fair_value": 30.72719, "relative_strength": -21.197489, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.358802, "energy": 38.408703, "activity_lines": [ 26.216667, 30.928364, 34.608238, 33.776473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.3, "volume": 5044209, "typical_volume": 16641846.05, "trend": 32.478333, "fair_value": 30.666311, "relative_strength": -28.239441, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.456782, "energy": 28.401625, "activity_lines": [ 25.218, 28.455636, 33.596095, 33.167806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.89, "volume": 5756183, "typical_volume": 16781215.65, "trend": 32.210333, "fair_value": 30.603089, "relative_strength": -29.785447, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.689208, "energy": 26.137328, "activity_lines": [ 24.382667, 26.350545, 32.560667, 32.549204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.89, "volume": 4344832, "typical_volume": 16810352.35, "trend": 32.114667, "fair_value": 30.565081, "relative_strength": -22.764999, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.440001, "energy": 27.678006, "activity_lines": [ 24.701333, 25.586364, 31.822667, 32.141441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }