{ "ticker": { "uuid": "782a1c72-b3ad-4747-b774-1d9a2e67592e", "symbol": "CNEW", "name": "VanEck China New Economy ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.039, "architecture_energy": 29.518, "architecture_maturity": 7.078, "architecture_confidence": 75.665, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.33, "rotation_up": 18.48, "upward_expansion": 8.96, "deceleration": 42.94, "rotation_down": 54.33, "downward_expansion": 70.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.829333, 7.890883, 7.934723, 7.944484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.04, "trend_reference": 7.984812, "distance_from_trend": 0.006912, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.98603, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.150868, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.648694, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.008631, "excess_performance": -0.072337, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006912, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001733, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.150868, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011929, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046487, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074927, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008631, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.298098, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111490, "relative_activity": 0.450772, "balance": 1.298098, "dry_up": 0.580524, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039816, "annualized_volatility": 0.157553, "from_high_reference": -0.061844, "from_low_reference": 0.086486 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.984812, "fair_value_reference": 6.98603, "structural_low": 7.4, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.008757, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.013172, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.438095, "worst_return": -0.071879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.022699, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.00702, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.141082, "worst_return": -0.145876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.083694, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.014217, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.187223, "worst_return": -0.126488, "sufficient": true 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"close": 7.6, "volume": 110249, "typical_volume": 248744.7, "trend": 8.010645, "fair_value": 6.968546, "relative_strength": -5.085418, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.992778, "energy": 24.029735, "activity_lines": [ 7.965575, 7.967503, 7.976642, 7.983728 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.51, "volume": 171889, "typical_volume": 248067.85, "trend": 7.996645, "fair_value": 6.972598, "relative_strength": -5.948472, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.363048, "energy": 49.507478, "activity_lines": [ 7.799386, 7.879474, 7.933812, 7.951428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.84, "volume": 180699, "typical_volume": 252171.55, "trend": 7.990978, "fair_value": 6.978082, "relative_strength": -4.060652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.742491, "energy": 47.010303, "activity_lines": [ 7.772, 7.863993, 7.924363, 7.941322 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.04, "volume": 111490, "typical_volume": 247331.2, "trend": 7.984812, "fair_value": 6.98603, "relative_strength": -4.648694, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.039108, "energy": 29.518219, "activity_lines": [ 7.829333, 7.890883, 7.934723, 7.944484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }