{ "ticker": { "uuid": "782fabdf-55c1-4f0c-95a2-c7410f9236dc", "symbol": "ARE", "name": "Aecon Group Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.734, "architecture_energy": 27.653, "architecture_maturity": 23.234, "architecture_confidence": 62.092, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.1, "rotation_up": 45.15, "upward_expansion": 73.07, "deceleration": 67.77, "rotation_down": 23.01, "downward_expansion": 4.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.102, 47.985718, 47.514321, 46.256044 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 46.639999, "trend_reference": 43.78635, "distance_from_trend": 0.065172, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.368863, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.995818, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.940371, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.256503, "excess_performance": 0.136082, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065172, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157099, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.995818, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.598105, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.159404, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.472833, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.256503, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.421507, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1976800, "relative_activity": 0.972392, "balance": 0.421507, "dry_up": 1.343704, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104368, "annualized_volatility": 0.442552, "from_high_reference": -0.188467, "from_low_reference": 1.39883 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.78635, "fair_value_reference": 23.368863, "structural_low": 34.928984, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.054057, "positive_rate": 0.678571, "directional_follow_through": 0.678571, "median_excess_return": 0.049933, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.264217, "worst_return": -0.143288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.12929, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.120079, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.603271, "worst_return": -0.198787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.093341, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.013146, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.888787, "worst_return": -0.195945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.23, "volume": 4918400, "typical_volume": 2237510.0, "trend": 43.289142, "fair_value": 23.132511, "relative_strength": 17.276637, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.716976, "energy": 37.732207, "activity_lines": [ 49.195333, 48.042435, 47.528593, 46.03986 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.639999, "volume": 1976800, "typical_volume": 2032925.0, "trend": 43.78635, "fair_value": 23.368863, "relative_strength": 15.940371, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.733686, "energy": 27.652525, "activity_lines": [ 48.102, 47.985718, 47.514321, 46.256044 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }