{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7834ceb4-e330-47e7-b28d-3f0d4c317c55", "symbol": "CS", "name": "Capstone Copper Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.225, "architecture_energy": 27.253, "architecture_maturity": 24.042, "architecture_confidence": 61.674, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.52, "rotation_up": 42.14, "upward_expansion": 45.25, "deceleration": 38.39, "rotation_down": 32.14, "downward_expansion": 15.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.766667, 13.516545, 13.329524, 13.059118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 15.43, "trend_reference": 13.126, "distance_from_trend": 0.175529, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.516795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.621344, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.651046, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.018448, "excess_performance": -0.138869, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.175529, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018019, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.621344, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.202559, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.09651, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076778, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018448, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.084479, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13494400, "relative_activity": 0.892055, "balance": 3.084479, "dry_up": 0.963067, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094072, "annualized_volatility": 0.681179, "from_high_reference": -0.144679, "from_low_reference": 0.787949 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.126, "fair_value_reference": 9.516795, "structural_low": 9.3, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.025546, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.009447, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.380124, "worst_return": -0.123312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.089902, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.316273, "worst_return": -0.143169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.121281, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.100242, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.730971, "worst_return": -0.026087, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.231056, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.044133, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.896296, "worst_return": -0.365904, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006243, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.380124, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034515, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071279, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005587, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.128884, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085302, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078089, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.021739, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", 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"volume": 14714800, "typical_volume": 17269190.0, "trend": 13.1, "fair_value": 9.375897, "relative_strength": -9.371056, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.428764, "energy": 17.664916, "activity_lines": [ 12.816667, 13.275636, 12.920762, 12.901312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.95, "volume": 11982700, "typical_volume": 15910400.0, "trend": 13.076333, "fair_value": 9.415577, "relative_strength": -4.53426, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.736807, "energy": 12.133757, "activity_lines": [ 12.756667, 13.186, 12.97581, 12.891634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.31, "volume": 18082600, "typical_volume": 15536000.0, "trend": 13.067667, "fair_value": 9.458205, "relative_strength": -1.853528, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.791813, "energy": 7.569733, "activity_lines": [ 12.927333, 13.159818, 13.057, 12.90671 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.43, "volume": 13494400, "typical_volume": 15127320.0, "trend": 13.126, "fair_value": 9.516795, "relative_strength": 9.651046, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.22489, "energy": 27.252853, "activity_lines": [ 13.766667, 13.516545, 13.329524, 13.059118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }