{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "7837c753-872e-4256-8b42-f8fbde827e8a",
    "symbol": "NEM",
    "name": "Nemetschek SE",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -32.746,
    "architecture_energy": 17.345,
    "architecture_maturity": 100.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 55.714,
    "architecture_tenure": "Extended",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 52.43,
        "rotation_up": 27.02,
        "upward_expansion": 18.47,
        "deceleration": 46.62,
        "rotation_down": 20.92,
        "downward_expansion": 52.47
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        58.236668,
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        58.359528,
        60.223125
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 60.150002,
    "trend_reference": 63.425353,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.051641,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 88.269349,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.318563,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -40.145792,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.140751,
    "excess_performance": -0.314997,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.051641,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.154748,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.318563,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.007781,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.401458,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.069707,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.140751,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.706311,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 830,
      "relative_activity": 4.678692,
      "balance": 1.706311,
      "dry_up": 2.353439,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.084297,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.401343,
      "from_high_reference": -0.559479,
      "from_low_reference": 0.184055
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 63.425353,
      "fair_value_reference": 88.269349,
      "structural_low": 50.799999,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 23,
        "median_return": -0.014979,
        "positive_rate": 0.478261,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.521739,
        "median_excess_return": -0.034753,
        "regime_survival": 0.869565,
        "best_return": 0.167342,
        "worst_return": -0.240158,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.069032,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.122355,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 0.1875,
        "worst_return": -0.270916,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.063366,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
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        "regime_survival": 0.25,
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        "worst_return": -0.371016,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.118515,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001811,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.520489,
        "worst_return": -0.283459,
        "sufficient": false
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    ],
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        "start": "2023-12-08",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-01-24",
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        "activity_lines": [
          63.617757,
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          67.59578,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 61.345341,
        "volume": 77,
        "typical_volume": 105.4,
        "trend": 79.054685,
        "fair_value": 89.007172,
        "relative_strength": -47.116534,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 55.108938,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "relative_strength": -48.153532,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -76.501118,
        "energy": 62.309282,
        "activity_lines": [
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          62.601931,
          65.345509,
          70.35436
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 27,
        "typical_volume": 106.75,
        "trend": 76.283566,
        "fair_value": 88.889988,
        "relative_strength": -44.260609,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -61.050638,
        "energy": 50.931213,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 61.950001,
        "volume": 223,
        "typical_volume": 116.9,
        "trend": 75.037237,
        "fair_value": 88.817697,
        "relative_strength": -46.290622,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -59.530269,
        "energy": 47.130458,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 0,
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        "trend": 74.116654,
        "fair_value": 88.780273,
        "relative_strength": -42.452167,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -44.729126,
        "energy": 33.801735,
        "activity_lines": [
          62.679184,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 56.400002,
        "volume": 230,
        "typical_volume": 124.2,
        "trend": 72.983806,
        "fair_value": 88.686976,
        "relative_strength": -50.061424,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -70.427398,
        "energy": 43.080876,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "relative_strength": -54.083472,
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        "direction": -75.886269,
        "energy": 52.151307,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 100.35,
        "trend": 70.356009,
        "fair_value": 88.499548,
        "relative_strength": -52.853254,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -74.665466,
        "energy": 69.192822,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.599999,
          58.197558,
          60.87829,
          64.162526
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 55.25,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 100.35,
        "trend": 69.132058,
        "fair_value": 88.463945,
        "relative_strength": -50.412729,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.185293,
        "energy": 73.417718,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.803333,
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          60.143453,
          63.187945
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 56.5,
        "volume": 80,
        "typical_volume": 98.85,
        "trend": 67.946475,
        "fair_value": 88.417137,
        "relative_strength": -47.521569,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -61.106171,
        "energy": 66.820809,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.87,
          56.92705,
          59.58119,
          62.372973
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 55.75,
        "volume": 371,
        "typical_volume": 117.4,
        "trend": 66.721051,
        "fair_value": 88.367907,
        "relative_strength": -46.013109,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -60.128018,
        "energy": 55.962046,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.216666,
          56.447658,
          58.995542,
          61.586104
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 57.0,
        "volume": 70,
        "typical_volume": 116.85,
        "trend": 65.555433,
        "fair_value": 88.321918,
        "relative_strength": -44.358569,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -54.765301,
        "energy": 39.720508,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.023333,
          56.297272,
          58.585506,
          60.95894
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 58.450001,
        "volume": 399,
        "typical_volume": 136.65,
        "trend": 64.449692,
        "fair_value": 88.285851,
        "relative_strength": -41.545315,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -38.99885,
        "energy": 25.503921,
        "activity_lines": [
          57.05,
          56.445454,
          58.365118,
          60.500525
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 60.150002,
        "volume": 830,
        "typical_volume": 177.4,
        "trend": 63.425353,
        "fair_value": 88.269349,
        "relative_strength": -40.145792,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -32.746004,
        "energy": 17.345481,
        "activity_lines": [
          58.236668,
          56.997273,
          58.359528,
          60.223125
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}