{ "ticker": { "uuid": "783ba3ac-b286-4185-abcf-ed8da39187d3", "symbol": "POET", "name": "POET Technologies Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 93.544, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.153, "architecture_energy": 34.599, "architecture_maturity": 6.81, "architecture_confidence": 55.329, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.27, "rotation_up": 16.62, "upward_expansion": 20.97, "deceleration": 52.75, "rotation_down": 60.14, "downward_expansion": 50.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.751333, 8.43, 9.721429, 9.31172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.91, "trend_reference": 8.607667, "distance_from_trend": 0.035124, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.656597, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.913415, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.755496, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.517888, "excess_performance": 0.330434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035124, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149221, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.913415, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.726583, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.057555, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.427495, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.517888, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.669946, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80289930, "relative_activity": 0.522764, "balance": 0.669946, "dry_up": 0.428985, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.375815, "annualized_volatility": 1.81908, "from_high_reference": -0.57184, "from_low_reference": 1.302326 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.607667, "fair_value_reference": 4.656597, "structural_low": 4.87, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.072482, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.002579, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.072482, "worst_return": -0.072482, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.009828, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.107071, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.009828, "worst_return": -0.009828, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.267813, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.018143, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.267813, "worst_return": 0.267813, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.131102, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.428839, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.391738, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.492929, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.292771, "active": false }, { 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"volume": 59467958, "typical_volume": 152529110.1, "trend": 8.562667, "fair_value": 4.606404, "relative_strength": -13.137657, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.152858, "energy": 26.777262, "activity_lines": [ 7.726667, 9.190364, 10.035524, 9.390409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.99, "volume": 52128397, "typical_volume": 152073531.7, "trend": 8.557, "fair_value": 4.625122, "relative_strength": -12.413006, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.522119, "energy": 40.256936, "activity_lines": [ 7.337333, 8.566545, 9.787429, 9.288946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.91, "volume": 80289930, "typical_volume": 153587379.85, "trend": 8.607667, "fair_value": 4.656597, "relative_strength": 5.755496, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.153418, "energy": 34.59862, "activity_lines": [ 7.751333, 8.43, 9.721429, 9.31172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }