{ "ticker": { "uuid": "783ffe06-6f60-484e-93df-27954c1f0066", "symbol": "2929", "name": "TOPBI International Holdings Limited", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.764, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.189, "architecture_energy": 30.238, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.801, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.23, "rotation_up": 20.5, "upward_expansion": 2.82, "deceleration": 54.08, "rotation_down": 45.97, "downward_expansion": 73.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.699333, 5.746545, 5.779143, 5.947505 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.79, "trend_reference": 6.318333, "distance_from_trend": -0.083619, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.873141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.41356, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -45.704957, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.254826, "excess_performance": -0.696198, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083619, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10577, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.41356, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067675, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.45705, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116963, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.254826, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.501277, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2725572, "relative_activity": 1.702289, "balance": 3.501277, "dry_up": 0.765295, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083034, "annualized_volatility": 0.258748, "from_high_reference": -0.419258, "from_low_reference": 0.126459 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.318333, "fair_value_reference": 9.873141, "structural_low": 5.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.037653, "positive_rate": 0.277778, "directional_follow_through": 0.722222, "median_excess_return": -0.046048, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.67698, "worst_return": -0.148297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.069628, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.08042, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.790342, "worst_return": -0.287742, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.046154, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.089935, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.448763, "worst_return": -0.337335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.029555, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.024865, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.256384, "worst_return": -0.500452, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024793, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015564, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021645, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019408, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118257, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.168605, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056452, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015564, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064639, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.155462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032864, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.476018, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 11.0, "volume": 1894308, "typical_volume": 2551854.9, "trend": 13.558333, "fair_value": 14.714368, "relative_strength": -23.233301, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"direction": -37.582459, "energy": 24.188339, "activity_lines": [ 5.829333, 5.851091, 5.849095, 6.104301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.64, "volume": 588711, "typical_volume": 1672070.95, "trend": 6.46, "fair_value": 9.941987, "relative_strength": -46.314234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.50323, "energy": 31.569204, "activity_lines": [ 5.772667, 5.810909, 5.818952, 6.04643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.52, "volume": 538002, "typical_volume": 1562062.55, "trend": 6.383333, "fair_value": 9.907179, "relative_strength": -47.565297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.169515, "energy": 35.671725, "activity_lines": [ 5.68, 5.750545, 5.783857, 5.985785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 5.79, "volume": 2725572, "typical_volume": 1601121.85, "trend": 6.318333, "fair_value": 9.873141, "relative_strength": -45.704957, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.18912, "energy": 30.238318, "activity_lines": [ 5.699333, 5.746545, 5.779143, 5.947505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }