{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7842259d-a4f7-48f9-83c6-73e7d6c7d2c0", "symbol": "TQM", "name": "TQM Alpha Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 76.869, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.901, "architecture_energy": 86.991, "architecture_maturity": 27.471, "architecture_confidence": 80.185, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.54, "rotation_up": 80.33, "upward_expansion": 97.3, "deceleration": 41.98, "rotation_down": 8.48, "downward_expansion": 21.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.613333, 15.918182, 15.047619, 14.514461 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.4, "trend_reference": 13.74237, "distance_from_trend": 0.193389, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.483784, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.112736, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.835644, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.395349, "excess_performance": 0.203024, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.193389, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118782, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.112736, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13164, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.098356, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122747, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.395349, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.833358, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1518000, "relative_activity": 0.580108, "balance": 0.833358, "dry_up": 0.803151, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052064, "annualized_volatility": 0.304165, "from_high_reference": -0.062857, "from_low_reference": 0.619131 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.74237, "fair_value_reference": 18.483784, "structural_low": 11.657777, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.014599, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.038545, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.174312, "worst_return": -0.210937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.11194, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.086285, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.182482, "worst_return": -0.119266, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.332862, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.226146, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.209237, "worst_return": -0.456487, "sufficient": false }, { 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"volume": 3845600, "typical_volume": 2963415.0, "trend": 13.361926, "fair_value": 18.563597, "relative_strength": 13.384138, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.442982, "energy": 96.132286, "activity_lines": [ 16.193333, 15.270909, 14.587143, 14.109142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.799999, "volume": 952300, "typical_volume": 2641320.0, "trend": 13.55563, "fair_value": 18.524973, "relative_strength": 11.54965, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.577462, "energy": 91.134036, "activity_lines": [ 16.56, 15.661818, 14.845714, 14.330953 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.4, "volume": 1518000, "typical_volume": 2616755.0, "trend": 13.74237, "fair_value": 18.483784, "relative_strength": 9.835644, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.901389, "energy": 86.991223, "activity_lines": [ 16.613333, 15.918182, 15.047619, 14.514461 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }