{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7843ae6c-1945-4fc7-94fc-3b6c8c4ec93c", "symbol": "6012", "name": "Raydan Food Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.194, "architecture_energy": 27.534, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.065, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.41, "rotation_up": 26.77, "upward_expansion": 19.51, "deceleration": 46.81, "rotation_down": 30.34, "downward_expansion": 55.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.38, 14.289273, 14.53981, 15.374645 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.66, "trend_reference": 16.731667, "distance_from_trend": -0.123817, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.707482, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.648504, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.195414, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.274257, "excess_performance": -0.242428, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123817, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198419, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.648504, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016265, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.311954, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036326, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.274257, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.251349, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 295411, "relative_activity": 0.927657, "balance": 1.251349, "dry_up": 0.813627, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089516, "annualized_volatility": 0.3572, "from_high_reference": -0.547531, "from_low_reference": 0.127692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.731667, "fair_value_reference": 41.707482, "structural_low": 13.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.033793, "positive_rate": 0.355556, "directional_follow_through": 0.644444, "median_excess_return": -0.043443, "regime_survival": 0.933333, "best_return": 0.172249, "worst_return": -0.24928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.168256, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.109127, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.103734, "worst_return": -0.330435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.296849, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.239896, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.282158, "worst_return": -0.428243, 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14.065818, 15.455286, 16.717506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.7, "volume": 583281, "typical_volume": 301314.25, "trend": 18.378, "fair_value": 43.144323, "relative_strength": -35.275435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.129358, "energy": 49.557616, "activity_lines": [ 14.200667, 14.056, 15.280191, 16.45385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.36, "volume": 387375, "typical_volume": 315802.35, "trend": 17.982667, "fair_value": 42.851181, "relative_strength": -35.843386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.494947, "energy": 40.40635, "activity_lines": [ 14.33, 14.044182, 15.096048, 16.194624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.12, "volume": 182123, "typical_volume": 318516.95, "trend": 17.614, "fair_value": 42.555808, "relative_strength": -35.558688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.758621, "energy": 36.241774, "activity_lines": [ 14.318667, 14.043455, 14.910381, 15.945419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.4, "volume": 180315, "typical_volume": 320274.2, "trend": 17.248667, "fair_value": 42.253741, "relative_strength": -38.44965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.809055, "energy": 42.16607, "activity_lines": [ 14.02, 13.960182, 14.679381, 15.673549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.9, "volume": 378544, "typical_volume": 306072.1, "trend": 16.944333, "fair_value": 41.982766, "relative_strength": -29.331805, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.86565, "energy": 31.878731, "activity_lines": [ 14.258667, 14.163455, 14.613619, 15.522022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.66, "volume": 295411, "typical_volume": 318448.45, "trend": 16.731667, "fair_value": 41.707482, "relative_strength": -31.195414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.193658, "energy": 27.534303, "activity_lines": [ 14.38, 14.289273, 14.53981, 15.374645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }