{ "ticker": { "uuid": "784b88e7-01a3-498f-a70b-3235c3a78e58", "symbol": "RAYG", "name": "Global X Solar UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.378, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.481, "architecture_energy": 84.72, "architecture_maturity": 16.853, "architecture_confidence": 80.843, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.4, "rotation_up": 8.72, "upward_expansion": 20.95, "deceleration": 37.55, "rotation_down": 79.36, "downward_expansion": 96.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.531833, 7.885209, 8.575895, 8.841613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.848, "trend_reference": 9.079733, "distance_from_trend": -0.135657, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.524925, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042934, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.457271, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.167365, "excess_performance": -0.2186, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135657, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002671, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042934, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190663, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154573, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.313299, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.167365, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.426254, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21583, "relative_activity": 1.756265, "balance": 1.426254, "dry_up": 1.599277, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076016, "annualized_volatility": 0.346214, "from_high_reference": -0.273199, "from_low_reference": 0.300199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.079733, "fair_value_reference": 7.524925, "structural_low": 7.181, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.021349, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.030956, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.131468, "worst_return": -0.091981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.061595, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.090721, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.19581, "worst_return": -0.197094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.076785, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.137018, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.070463, "worst_return": -0.200786, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"close": 7.426, "volume": 10861, "typical_volume": 11188.6, "trend": 9.139117, "fair_value": 7.562726, "relative_strength": -18.664643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.24217, "energy": 91.774511, "activity_lines": [ 7.672567, 8.298555, 8.870395, 9.042575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.277, "volume": 36473, "typical_volume": 12424.45, "trend": 9.1008, "fair_value": 7.540502, "relative_strength": -21.270319, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.032631, "energy": 91.005849, "activity_lines": [ 7.4617, 8.012255, 8.68946, 8.922439 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.848, "volume": 21583, "typical_volume": 12289.15, "trend": 9.079733, "fair_value": 7.524925, "relative_strength": -15.457271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.48142, "energy": 84.720279, "activity_lines": [ 7.531833, 7.885209, 8.575895, 8.841613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }